Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – March 2025

     

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In February, the central islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-Easterly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of February.     

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is favoured to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer (62% chance in June-August 2025).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of average rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands, it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increases up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
10th March	TR	TR	-
11th March	50 mm	30 mm	-
12th March	80 mm	10 mm	TR
13th March	TR	-	-
14th March	TR	TR	-
15th March	-	TR	-
16th March	-	-	TR
17th March	TR	-	-
18th March	5 mm	TR	-
19th March	TR	TR	-
20th March	5 mm	TR	-
21st March	TR	TR	-
22nd March	TR	10 mm	TR
23rd March	-	TR	-
24th March	TR	TR	TR

    TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In February, the central islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, northern and southern islands received up to 5 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	33.00C	34.00C	32.20C
T Min	18.00C	22.30C	22.80C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 March, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                           Central Islands:  160 mm rainfall 

                                                           Southern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

 21-30 March, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                             Central Islands:  40 mm rainfall 

                                                             Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March 19, 2025:

As of mid-March 2025, the equatorial Pacific is transitioning from weak La Niña conditions to a ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO plume forecast indicates a high probability (91%) for ENSO-neutral conditions from Mar-May 2025, and these conditions are favoured to continue through Sep-Nov 2025. For the later forecast seasons, Oct-Dec 2025 and Nov-Jan 2025/26, there is no strong preference for any category, although La Niña is slightly favoured over ENSO-neutral.  (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 4 - 10 March, 2025: 

Near-neutral SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
27th March	TR	40 mm	10 mm
28th March	-	TR	10 mm
29th March	TR	-	TR
30th March	TR	-	TR
31st March	TR	TR	TR
01st April	-	10 mm	10 mm
02nd April	10 mm	10 mm	20 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 60% for the northern islands, by 40% for the central islands, by 50% for the southern between 29^th March-11^th April.   

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 40% probable in the northern islands, below-normal tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands, near-neutral tercile is probable in the central islands from April-May-June 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of above-normal range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 6 and 7 respectively in the next two weeks (26 March – 9 April 2025). MJO in phase 6 and 7 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.