Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2015


After a relatively dry January, February and March some rainfall was observed in the first two weeks of April. This is the highest observed rainfall this year in the entire country. This rainfall coincided with the atmospheric phenomenon known as Madden Julian Oscillation being strong and in phase 3 (and over the Indian Ocean) which is usually associated with higher rainfall over Maldives. But as the MJO transited to phase 5 over the Pacific in the previous week (11 th onwards) was once again dry. The NOAA CFS long range weather prediction models predict dry conditions in the next week as well. Usually in April relatively high rainfall can be observed (about 200 mm- 400 mm monthly). Moderate El Nino conditions have set in and as is typical there is warmer than usual seas around the Maldives. The rainfall in a typical El Nino episode over Maldives is lower than usual in Northern and Central Maldives until mid-September.

Below average rainfall observed in the entire country in March 2015

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI