Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

Heavy rainfall was observed over the entire Maldives in July/ early-August 2015. This is the highest observed monthly rainfall this year. Due to this heavy rainfall the cumulative deficit of rainfall has come down to about 9% in northern islands and central islands and there is no deficit in southern islands. NOAA CFS models predict heavy rainfall in southern and central islands until the end of August while IRI seasonal predictions say that there shall be above average rainfall in the next 3 months with 80% probability. This is in keeping with what’s typical during an El Nino.

Deficit of rainfall (brown hatch) in southern islands of Maldives. High rainfall in  the first two weeks of August 2015 has diminished the gap between observed rainfall and  average rainfall.

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI