Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2015


The monthly average rainfall during August was about 200 mm in central islands and about 150 mm in southern islands. These amounts are the highest rainfall observed during this year. However, the rainfall in the northern islands once again below average rainfall in August. The high August rainfall in southern islands has compensated for the cumulative rainfall deficit. In the central islands the high rainfall has contributed to bring down the rainfall deficit by about 50%. During the next 3 months there is a high chance of having above average rainfall in central islands. But in the Southern islands below average rainfall is more likely in the next 3 months. This pattern predicted by climate models is consistent with historical data during El Nino events which is likely to prevail for the next 6 months.

Rainfall in the past 5 years in Central islands. Black line shows the rainfall in 2015 which gets very high in August and September

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tidal swells may cause flooding in the Maldives next week

by Zaheena Rasheed

Tidal swells may cause flooding across the Maldives on September 28, 29 and 30, the department of meteorology has said.
The alert was issued after the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) warned of tidal flooding for the Indian coastline next week in connection with the perigean spring tide.
A perigean spring tide or king tide occurs when the new or full moon coincides with the perigree of the moon—the point when the moon is closest to the Earth.
Flooding does not always occur when there is perigean spring tide, but it is likely when a storm strikes at the same time as a king tide.
The Maldives has been experiencing a prolonged bout of bad weather in recent weeks, an unusual occurrence for September.
Some 400 passengers were rescued at sea and thunderstorms have damaged property across the country. A seaplane and several speedboats docked at harbors had to be refloated.
In August tidal swells hit the capital city of Malé, causing severe flooding in the northeast side of the city. The area was inundated in more than two feet of water.
Colombo based Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology (FECT) has predicted above average rainfall in the Maldives up to November due to the ongoing El Nino weather phenomenon.
There has been a marked increase in reports of weather-related damage to property this year.