Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – February 2025

    

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In January, the central islands received up to 25 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. Easterly winds prevailed for northern islands of Maldives during the month of January.    

Predictions: La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the near-term, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (66% chance).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In March, northern and central islands receive average rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it is northwesterly. Rainfall usually increases up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
12th February	-	TR	-
13th February	-	TR	-
14th February	-	-	TR
15th February	-	-	TR
16th February	-	-	-
17th February	-	5 mm	-
18th February	-	TR	-
19th February	-	20 mm	5 mm
20th February	-	50 mm	10 mm
21st February	-	5 mm	TR
22nd February	-	-	TR
23rd February	-	-	TR
24th February	-	TR	-
25th February	-	40 mm	20 mm
26th February	TR	10 mm	TR

    TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In January, the northern islands received up to 15 mm of rainfall, central islands received up to 25 mm rainfall, southern islands received up to 12 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	34.00C	34.00C	32.00C
T Min	24.60C	24.60C	23.00C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 February, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

                                                               Central Islands:  10 mm rainfall 

                                                               Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

 21-30 February, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: No rainfall 

                                                                Central Islands:  70 mm rainfall 

                                                                Southern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State February 19, 2025:

As of mid-February 2025, weak La Niña conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific. These conditions have been in place since December 2024, following the initial crossing of the La Niña threshold. The IRI ENSO plume forecasts equal chances for La Niña and ENSO-neutral conditions for Feb-Apr, 2025. For Mar-May, 2025, onwards to the Jun-Aug, ENSO-neutral conditions are favoured. In summary, there are equal chance of La Niña and ENSO-neutral conditions during Feb-Apr 2025, while ENSO-neutral conditions are favoured from Mar-May through the boreal summer. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 4 - 10 February, 2025: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the northern and southern islands, while near-neutral SST was observed around the central islands of Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
01st March	70 mm	70 mm	20 mm
02nd March	130 mm	70 mm	40 mm
03rd March	70 mm	10 mm	TR
04th March	TR	TR	10 mm
05th March	TR	10 mm	-
06th March	TR	-	-
07th March	10 mm	20 mm	10 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% for the northern and central islands, by 50% for the southern islands between 8^th-21^st March.   

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 45% probable in the northern islands, and 50% probable in the central islands; and below-normal tercile is 45% probable in the southern islands from March-April-May 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of above-normal range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1 and 2 respectively in the next two weeks (27 February – 13 March 2025). MJO in phase 2 usually enhance the rainfall over the Maldives.