Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – April 2025

      

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of April, the central islands experienced the highest rainfall, reaching up to 50 mm per day, while remaining islands received less. In the coming week, rainfall is expected to decrease, with drier conditions prevailing over the first two weeks of May.

Monitored: In March, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-Easterly winds prevailed for the northern and central islands, while North-Westerly winds prevailed for the southern islands of Maldives during the month of March. 

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-October 2025.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In May, average rainfall is about 200 mm in the entire country. The wind direction is westerly and the speed is higher than in April. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
14th April	TR	5 mm	-
15th April	TR	TR	TR
16th April	-	-	TR
17th April	TR	-	-
18th April	TR	TR	TR
19th April	TR	TR	TR
20th April	TR	TR	TR
21st April	-	TR	TR
22nd April	TR	20 mm	TR
23rd April	TR	20 mm	TR
24th April	20 mm	5 mm	TR
25th April	TR	10 mm	TR
26th April	TR	50 mm	40 mm
27th April	40 mm	40 mm	20 mm
28th April	TR	TR	5 mm

TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In March, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall, northern island received up to 10 mm rainfall, southern islands received up to 5 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	33.60C	35.20C	33.00C
T Min	18.00C	22.20C	21.80C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

11-20 April, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

                                                          Central Islands:  20 mm rainfall 

                                                          Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

 21-30 April, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

                                                           Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 

                                                           Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State April 21, 2025:

As of mid-March 2025, the equatorial Pacific is transitioning from weak La Niña conditions to a ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO plume forecast indicates a high probability (91%) for ENSO-neutral conditions from Mar-May 2025, and these conditions are favoured to continue through Sep-Nov 2025. For the later forecast seasons, Oct-Dec 2025 and Nov-Jan 2025/26, there is no strong preference for any category, although La Niña is slightly favoured over ENSO-neutral.  (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 8 - 14 April, 2025: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the northern islands, while near-neutral SST was observed around the central and southern islands of Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
01st May	20 mm	10 mm	10 mm
02nd May	TR	10 mm	TR
03rd May	TR	70 mm	TR
04th May	20 mm	10 mm	20 mm
05th May	10 mm	10 mm	TR
06th May	20 mm	10 mm	TR
07th May	40 mm	40 mm	40 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% in the northern islands; by 50% in the southern and central islands between 26^thApril - 9^th May.    

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Near-normal precipitation tercile is probable in entire Maldives from May-June-July 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 6, 7 and 8 respectively in the next two weeks (04 – 18 May 2025). MJO in phase 6, 7 and 8 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.