Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – June 2024

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In May, the northern and central islands received up to 25 mm of rainfall, while remaining islands received less than 10 mm of rainfall. North-westerly winds prevailed for the northern; westerly winds for the central islands and South-westerly winds for the southern islands during the month of May. 

Predictions: ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña is favored to develop during July-September and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
9th June	TR	TR	-
10th June	5 mm	-	-
11th June	TR	TR	5 mm
12th June	TR	-	TR
13th June	-	-	-
14th June	TR	-	-
15th June	TR	5 mm	TR
16th June	TR	-	TR
17th June	TR	TR	TR
18th June	TR	TR	TR
19th June	TR	TR	5 mm
20th June	5 mm	TR	10 mm
21st June	20 mm	10 mm	10 mm
22nd June	40 mm	40 mm	TR
23rd June	20 mm	10 mm	-

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In May, the northern and central islands received up to 25 mm of rainfall; and southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall. 

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.60C	33.40C	33.00C
T Min	26.00C	26.70C	23.60C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: no rainfall 

                                                        Central Islands:  10 mm rainfall 

                                                        Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

 11-20 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

                                                           Central Islands:  10 mm rainfall 

                                                           Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 20, 2024:

As of mid-June 2024, waning El Niño conditions persist only in the western equatorial Pacific (between 160E to 160W), while other oceanic and atmospheric indicators now align with ENSO-neutral conditions. Almost all models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast ENSO-neutral for Jun-Aug, 2024, which persists in most models during boreal summer seasons of Jul-Sep, and Aug-Oct, 2024. La Niña becomes the most probable category in Sep-Nov, 2024 through Jan-Mar, 2025, while for Feb-Apr, 2025 ENSO-neutral conditions become dominant (52% chance). (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 4 - 10 June, 2024: 

SST was observed near-neutral around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
27th June	40 mm	10 mm	TR
28th June	10 mm	TR	-
29th June	TR	TR	-
30th June	10 mm	-	-
1st July	10 mm	-	-
2nd July	20 mm	TR	TR
3rd July	TR	-	-

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 50% for the northern and central islands and by 45% for the southern islands between 29thJune-12th July.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands; and near-normal in the northern and central islands from July-August-September 2024 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-normal range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 2 and 3 in the next two weeks (24 June – 8 July 2024). MJO in phases 2 & 3 usually enhance the rainfall over the Maldives.