HIGHLIGHTS
Monitored: In June, the northern and central islands received up to 5 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of June.
Predictions: ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña favored to emerge during August-October and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25.
Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------
- Monthly Climatology
- Rainfall Monitoring
- Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
- Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
- Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
- Ocean Surface Monitoring
- Rainfall Predictions
- Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
- Seasonal Predictions from IRI
SUMMARY
Climatology
Monthly Climatology:
In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.
Figures Part 2 (PDF) Monitoring
Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:
Date | Rainfall |
Northern Islands | Central Islands | Southern Islands |
21st July | 5 mm | TR | - |
22nd July | - | 5 mm | - |
23rd July | - | 5 mm | - |
24th July | 30 mm | 5 mm | 10 mm |
25th July | 40 mm | 50 mm | 5 mm |
26th July | 40 mm | 50 mm | - |
27th July | 5 mm | 5 mm | TR |
28th July | 10 mm | 10 mm | 50 mm |
29th July | TR | TR | 5 mm |
30th July | TR | TR | 10 mm |
31st July | 10 mm | - | - |
1st August | 10 mm | - | - |
2nd August | - | - | - |
3rd August | 5 mm | - | - |
4th August | 10 mm | 80 mm | 30 mm |
TR - Trace Value
Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In June, the northern and central islands received up to 5 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less.
Monthly Temperature Monitoring:
| Northern Islands | Central Islands | Southern Islands |
T Max | 33.00C | 34.00C | 33.00C |
T Min | 24.80C | 23.50C | 23.00C |
Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:
1-10 July, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 70 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 70 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall
11-20 July, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 10 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 10 mm rainfall
Pacific Seas State July 19, 2024:
As of mid-July 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the western equatorial Pacific, and oceanic and atmospheric indicators also align with ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast ENSO-neutral for Jul-Sep, and Aug-Oct, 2024. La Niña becomes the most probable category in Sep-Nov, 2024 through Dec-Feb, 2025, while for Jan-Mar, 2025 ENSO-neutral conditions become dominant (50% chance), and remain so during Feb-Apr, and Mar-May, 2025 (Text Courtesy IRI).
Indian Ocean Monitoring on 9 - 15 July, 2024:
Between 0.50C - 10C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.
Predictions
Date | Rainfall |
Northern Islands | Central Islands | Southern Islands |
7th August | 40 mm | - | TR |
8th August | 20 mm | TR | TR |
9th August | TR | - | TR |
10th August | TR | - | TR |
11th August | - | - | - |
12th August | - | - | 10 mm |
13th August | TR | - | 10 mm |
Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:
NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 60% for the northern and central islands and by 50% for the southern islands between 10th-23rd August.
Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:
Above-normal tercile is 40% probable in the northern islands; below-normal tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands and near-normal in the central islands from August-September-October 2024 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-normal range for the Maldives.
MJO Index:
The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 8 and 1 respectively in the next two weeks (2 – 16 August 2024). MJO in phase 1 usually enhance the rainfall over the Maldives.
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