Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – May 2024

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In April, the central islands received up to 20 mm of rainfall; southern and northern islands have received less than 15 mm of rainfall. North-easterly winds prevailed for the northern and central islands and South-westerly winds for the southern islands during the month of April. 

Predictions: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month. La Niña may develop in June-August 2024 (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance). Seasonal climate predictions predict a wet condition for the northern islands and dry condition for the southern islands from June to August 2024.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In June, average rainfall usually is about 250 mm in the northern islands and 150 mm in the southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually westerly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed are similar to previous months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
13th May	50 mm	125 mm	40 mm
14th May	40 mm	40 mm	10 mm
15th May	5 mm	10 mm	20 mm
16th May	20 mm	10 mm	10 mm
17th May	20 mm	100 mm	50 mm
18th May	40 mm	20 mm	30 mm
19th May	40 mm	80 mm	10 mm
20th May	10 mm	10 mm	TR
21st May	20 mm	40 mm	10 mm
22nd May	50 mm	50 mm	-
23rd May	80 mm	40 mm	5 mm
24th May	40 mm	40 mm	TR
25th May	30 mm	30 mm	TR
26th May	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
27th May	50 mm	20mm	20mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In April, the central islands received up to 20 mm of rainfall; southern islands received up to 15 mm of rainfall and northern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	33.90C	34.00C	33.00C
T Min	25.00C	24.80C	24.20C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10 May, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Central Islands: 100 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State May 20, 2024:

As of mid-May 2024, waning El Niño conditions persist in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific (between 160E to 160W), with important oceanic and atmospheric indicators aligning with ENSO-neutral conditions. All models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast ENSO-neutral for May-Jul, 2024, which then persists during boreal summer seasons of Jun-Aug, and Jul-Sep, 2024. La Niña becomes the most probable category in Aug-Oct, 2024 through Jan-Mar, 2025. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 7 - 13 May, 2024: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
30th May	70 mm	10 mm	20 mm
31st May	20 mm	10 mm	10 mm
1st June	TR	TR	TR
2nd June	TR	TR	TR
3rd June	TR	TR	-
4th June	10 mm	TR	-
5th June	10 mm	TR	-

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 50% for the northern and central islands and by 45% for the southern islands between 1^st-14^th June.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 45% probable in the northern islands; below-normal tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands; and near-normal in the central islands from June-July-August 2024 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of wet range for the northern islands and dry range for the southern islands.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 4 and 5 in the next two weeks (29 May – 15 June 2024). MJO in phases 4 & 5 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.