Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – July 2023

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In June, the northern and central islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, while other islands received less. Westerly to north-westerly winds observed during the month.

Predictions: El Niño conditions are present and will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.  Seasonal climate predictions predict a wet tendency for the entire islands from August to October 2023.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
8th July	-	-	-
9th July	-	-	-
10th July	-	-	-
11th July	TR	TR	-
12th July	TR	-	TR
13th July	TR	-	TR
14th July	10 mm	-	-
15th July	TR	TR	TR
16th July	5 mm	TR	TR
17th July	TR	5 mm	TR
18th July	TR	10 mm	10 mm
19th July	5 mm	5 mm	20 mm
20th July	40 mm	20 mm	20 mm
21st July	10 mm	60 mm	40 mm
22nd July	TR	TR	5 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In June, the northern and central islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, while other islands received up to 5 mm. 

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.20C	330C	320C
T Min	28.50C	24.20C	22.40C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10 July, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 150 mm rainfall 

                                                                   Central Islands: 100 mm rainfall 
                                                                   Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

  11-20 July, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

                                                                     Central Islands: 20 mm rainfall 
                                                                     Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State July 19, 2023:

As of mid-July 2023, the previously weak El Niño conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have strengthened gradually to a weak-to-moderate El Niño. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with the weak El Niño, although atmospheric variables, particularly SOI, are currently in the ENSO-neutral range. CPC issued an El Niño advisory in July 2023, signaling the presence of the warm phase of the ENSO. Almost all of the models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast an El Niño event during boreal summer, continuing into boreal autumn and winter, while weakening during the boreal spring of 2024. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring 27 June to 3 July, 2023: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the southern Islands & near-neutral around the northern and central islands.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
26th July	40 mm	10 mm	20 mm
27th July	20 mm	10 mm	40 mm
28th July	10 mm	TR	40 mm
29th July	TR	-	20 mm
30th July	20 mm	-	10 mm
31st July	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
1st Aug	TR	20 mm	40 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% for the southern islands; and near neutral tercile for the rest between 29^thJul - 11^th Aug.   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 45% probable in the northern and central islands and 40% probable in the southern islands from August-September-October 2023 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 5 & 6 respectively in the next two weeks (24 Jul – 7 Aug 2023). MJO in phase 5 is usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.