Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – June 2023

            

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In June, the majority of the northern islands and central islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, while other islands received less. Westerly wind observed during the month. The southern islands had the lowest temperature, while the northern islands had the highest.

Predictions: Up to 40 mm of rainfall is predicted for the northern islands on July 6 and 7 this week. El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Seasonal climate predictions predict a wet tendency for the northern islands; and near-neutral to dry tendency for central and southern islands from July to September 2023 for the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
19th June	TR	TR	-
20th June	TR	TR	5 mm
21st June	5 mm	10 mm	10 mm
22nd June	TR	20 mm	20 mm
23rd June	TR	10 mm	5 mm
24th June	50 mm	40 mm	40 mm
25th June	40 mm	50 mm	TR
26th June	40 mm	TR	TR
27th June	20 mm	TR	-
28th June	5 mm	-	-
29th June	TR	-	-
30th June	TR	TR	-
1st July	TR	TR	-
2nd July	50 mm	40 mm	TR
3rd July	10 mm	50 mm	80 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In June, the majority of the northern islands and central islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, while other islands received up to 5 mm.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	34.40C	330C	32.10C
T Min	28.40C	24.10C	22.40C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             11-20 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

                                                                      Central Islands: 20 mm rainfall 
                                                                      Southern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

  21-30 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                                     Central Islands: 70 mm rainfall 
                                                                     Southern Islands: 50 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 16, 2023:

In mid-June 2023, the previously ENSO-neutral conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have transitioned to warm El Niño-like conditions. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with the onset of El Niño. CPC issued an El Niño advisory in Jun 2023, signaling the onset of the warm phase of the ENSO. Almost all of the models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast an El Niño event during boreal summer, continuing into boreal autumn and winter. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on May 8, 2023: 

0.50C above average SST was observed around the northern & southern Islands & near-neutral around the central islands.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
6th July	40 mm	40 mm	TR
7th July	40 mm	20 mm	20 mm
8th July	20 mm	10 mm	20 mm
9th July	TR	-	TR
10th July	TR	-	-
11th July	TR	-	-
12th July	NA	NA	NA

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% for the southern islands; above-normal tercile by 40% for some of the northern islands and near neutral tercile for the rest between 8thJuly - 21st July.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal tercile is 40% probable in the central islands; above-normal precipitation tercile is 40% probable in some of the northern islands; and near-neutral tercile is probable in the southern islands from July-August-September 2023 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 2,3,4 & 5 respectively in the next two weeks (6 – 18 July 2023). MJO in phase 2 is usually enhance the rainfall over the Maldives. And thereafter, shall slightly suppress the rainfall in mid-July 2023.