Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – June 2021

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During May, the entire Maldives islands received Deficits from climatology. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 32% in the Northern islands; 10% in the southern islands and a deficit by 12% in the Central islands.

Predictions: With ENSO-neutral conditions established; wet conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from July - September 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
12th - 13th June	5 mm	-	-
14th- 21st June	-	-	-
22nd June	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
23rd June	10 mm	10 mm	20 mm
24th June	-	20 mm	10 mm
25th June	-	10 mm	10 mm
26th June	-	-	5 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In May, entire islands received up to 15 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 475 mm from an average of 1500 mm average
                 Central islands: Deficit of 200 mm from an average of 1700 mm average
                 Southern islands: Excess of 175 mm from an average of 1775 mm average

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:

  1-10 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 150 mm rainfall 

                                                         Central Islands:  10 mm rainfall 

                                                         Southern Islands:  20 mm rainfall 

 11-20 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

                                                          Central Islands:  5 mm rainfall 

                                                          Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 16, 2021 :
In mid-June 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere summer 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook likely persist ENSO-neutral condition through the summer.(Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on June 16, 2021: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:
NOAA GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 28^th June; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on 29^th June; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 30^th June; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 1^st – 2^nd July; Up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 3^rd July; and Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 4^th July.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:
NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 60% in the central and southern islands; and tercile by 45% in the southern islands between 26^thJune- 2^nd July.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:
Above-normal temperature tercile is 45% probable in the central islands; and 40% probable in northern and southern islands from July-August-September 2021 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 
The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1 & 2 and it is strong in the next two weeks (27 June – 11 July 2021). MJO in phases 1 & 2 usually enhances rainfall over the Maldives.