Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – May 2021

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored:During April, the southern islands received above normal rainfall while the central and northern islands received less. Tropical Cyclone ‘Tauktae’ originated near the northern Maldives on May 10 with wind speeds of up to 170km/h - 185km/h (according to IMD at its peak). It tracked along the Western coast of India until it made landfall in Gujarat on the 15th May. This led to extreme rainfall over northern and central parts of the Maldives from 10th to -15th of May due to the long-range.

Predictions:With Enso neutral conditions established; dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from June -August 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological.The Deep Depression over the East-central Bay of Bengal intensified into Cyclonic Storm ‘Yaas’ and heads towards the north Odisha-West Bengal coast at a speed of 155 km/h to 165 km/h, gusting to 185 km/h on May 26. There could be long range impacts on the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In June, average rainfall usually is about 250 mm in the northern islands and 150 mm in the southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually westerly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed are similar to previous months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
8th May	-	5 mm	-
9th May	10 mm	-	-
10th May	60 mm	60 mm	30 mm
11th May	60 mm	80 mm	60 mm
12th May	130 mm	100 mm	130 mm
13th May	60 mm	40 mm	20 mm
14th May	130 mm	100 mm	80 mm
15th May	20 mm	60 mm	30 mm
16th May	-	-	-
17th May	10 mm	-	-
18th May	-	-	-
19th May	10 mm	-	-
20th May	-	-	-
21st May	5 mm	-	-
22nd May	30 mm	10 mm	-

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In April, southern islands received up to 10 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less.

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:

  1-10 May, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

                                                       Central Islands:  80 mm rainfall 

                                                       Southern Islands:  80 mm rainfall 

 11-21 May, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 250 mm rainfall 

                                                         Central Islands:  250 mm rainfall 

                                                         Southern Islands:  250 rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State May 12, 2021 :

In mid-May 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere summer 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook likely persist ENSO-neutral condition through the summer.  (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on May 12, 2021: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on 25^th May; up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 20 mm in southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands on 26^th May; up to 130 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 20 mm in southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands on 27^th May; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands on 28^th May; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 29^th- 30^th May; and up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in southern and central islands on 31^st May.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 50% in the northern and central islands; and below-normal tercile by 45% in the southern islands between 22^nd- 28^thMay.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal temperature tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands; and below-normal temperature tercile is 40% probable in central and northern islands from June-July-August 2021 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 5 & 6 in the next week (23 May – 6 June 2021). MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 27^th – 31^st May and significantly suppress during 1^st – 5^th June over the Maldives.