Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – March 2020

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During February, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During last year the northern and southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm and the central Islands have an excess of 350 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1.5 ⁰C above normal. This is extremely warm.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the entire country during 11^th-13^th March. On the 14^th, up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands.  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.  
 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In March, northern and central islands receive average rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it is northwesterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
16th February	No Rainfall.
17th February	Up to 15 mm in the central islands.
18th February	Up to 20 mm in the central islands.
19th   February	Up to 10 mm in the southern islands.
20th February	No Rainfall.
21st February	Up to 50 mm in the central and southern islands.
22nd February	Up to 100 mm in the central; up to 50 mm in southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
23rd February	Up to 5 mm in the central islands.
24th – 25th February	No Rainfall.
26th – 27th February	Up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
28th February	Up to 5 mm in the southern islands.
29th February	No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In February, the whole country received up to 150 mm of total rainfall, which is normal for the season.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State February 18, 2020 :

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for continuation of ENSO-neutral

Indian Ocean Monitoring on December 25, 2019: 

1.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 5 from Feb 8-11; in Phase 6 from Feb 12-16; and again, in Phase 5 from Feb 17-20. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the entire country during 11^th-13^th March. On the 14^th, up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands.  From 15^th-16^th, daily rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the central islands and up to 10 in northern islands. On the 17^th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands.