Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – December 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During December, the northern islands received rainfall slightly above than is normal for the season. During last year the northern and central Islands have an excess of 250 mm and the southern Islands have an excess of 600 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around The Maldives was 0.5 ⁰C above normal. 

Predictions: MD GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of daily in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands on January 4^th. On the 5^th and 6^th, daily rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the southern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the whole country next week.
 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

 In January, northern islands receive up to 50 mm of rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm of rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. Usually in February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly. In March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
17th December	Up to 30 mm in the central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
18th December	Up to 100 mm in the central islands and up to 20 mm in northern and southern islands.
19th December	Up to 100 mm in the northern and central islands and up to 50 mm in southern islands.
20th   December	More than 140 mm in the central islands; up to 120 mm in northern islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
21st December	Up to 20 mm in the southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
22nd December	More than 140 mm in the central islands and up to 50 mm in and southern islands.
23rd December	Up to 100 mm in the central islands and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
24th December	Up to 50 mm in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands.
25th December	Up to 20 mm in the central islands.
26th December	Up to 10 mm in the northern islands.
27th – 28th December	No Rainfall.
29th – 30th December	Up to 30 mm in the southern islands.
31st December	No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In December, the northern islands received up to 50 mm of rainfall above than normal for the season; and central and southern islands received normal rainfall. The entire country received up to 600 mm of total rainfall. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State December 19, 2019 :

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-December. Patterns in most atmospheric variables have maintained neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral to borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during early winter, returning to ENSO-neutral from late winter to spring and even early summer.

Indian Ocean Monitoring on December 25, 2019: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from Dec 12-13; and in Phase 6 from Dec 24-26 Usually, rainfall in the Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands on January 4^th. On the 5^th and 6^th, daily rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the southern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands. On the 7^th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the central islands; up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands. On the 8^th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in the northern islands. On the 9^th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the whole country.