Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – November 2025

             

HIGHLIGHTS

During 19^th – 21^st December, northern and central islands are expected to receive very heavy rainfall (130 – 200 mm). Despite the influence of Cyclone Ditwah, Maldives did not experience heavy rainfall during 26^th – 29^th November. Highest daily rainfall during this period was in the central islands on 25^th November (100 mm).  Sea surface temperature (SST) around northern and central islands remain warmer than usual. Winds are mainly coming from the northwest across the country. 

Monitored: In November, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall and the remaining islands received less. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of November. 

Predictions:  La Niña is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-march 2026 (68% chance).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – October 2025

            

HIGHLIGHTS

During 4^th-10^th November, rainfall is expected to decrease in the northern and central islands, while the southern islands are likely to continue receiving heavy rainfall, with daily totals reaching up to 70 mm. During the last two weeks of October, Maldives experienced heavy rainfall, with daily rainfall of northern and central islands reaching up to 50 mm. Sea surface temperature (SST) around Maldives remain warmer than usual. Winds are mainly coming from the northwest and west across the country. 

Monitored: In October, the northern, central and southern islands received up to 15 mm of rainfall. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Northern and Central islands while Westerly winds prevailed for the Southern islands of Maldives during the month of August. 

Predictions: La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 - February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – September 2025

           

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of September, the northern islands experienced a peak daily rainfall of around 60 mm on 25th September, while the remaining islands received comparatively lower amounts. In the coming week, the northern islands are expected to record another peak in daily rainfall, reaching up to 70 mm. The Indian Ocean SST remains warmer, while in contrast, La Niña conditions are now developing in the Pacific Ocean.

Monitored: In September, the northern and southern islands received up to 5 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Northern and Central islands while Westerly winds prevailed for the Southern islands of Maldives during the month of August.  

Predictions: A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is likely in the next couple of months, with a 71% chance of La Niña during October - December 2025. Thereafter, La Niña is favored but chances decrease to 54% in December 2025 - February 2026.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – August 2025

          

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of August, the southern islands recorded the highest rainfall, reaching up to 40 mm per day, while the other islands received comparatively less. Northwesterly winds prevailed over the Maldives during July. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to be cooler within the next three months.

Monitored: In July, the northern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of July.   

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – July 2025

         

HIGHLIGHTS

In July, the northern islands received the highest rainfall, up to 40 mm per day. The maximum temperature of 33°C was recorded in the central islands.  North-westerly winds prevailed over the northern and central islands, while westerly winds dominated in the southern islands. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to remain near-neutral this summer.

Monitored: In June, the northern and southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the northern and central islands; while Westerly winds prevailed for the southern islands of the Maldives during the month of June.  

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain comparable to ENSO-neutral.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – June 2025

        

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of June, the northern islands experienced the highest rainfall, reaching up to 50 mm per day, while remaining islands received less. ENSO-neutral state is likely in the summer 2025.

Monitored: In May, the northern and southern islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. Westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of May.   

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (82% chance in June-August) and may continue into winter 2025-26. though confidence is lower (48% chance of Neutral and 41% chance of La Niña in November-January).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – May 2025

       

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of May, the central and southern islands experienced the highest rainfall, reaching up to 80 mm per day, while remaining islands received less. In the coming week, rainfall is expected to decrease, with drier conditions prevailing over the first two weeks of May.

Monitored: In April, the southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. South-Westerly winds prevailed for the southern and central islands, while Westerly winds prevailed for the northern islands of Maldives during the month of April.  

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), with chances exceeding 50% through August-October 2025.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI