Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2013

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Highlights

December 2012 has been a dry month for all of Maldives. The rainfall deficit compared to the last 8 year’s average has been growing for all Northern, Central and Southern islands of Maldives. Dry conditions are expected to be sustained during January. There is a higher than average chance of above normal precipitation in Central Maldives from February to April. The chances of above normal temperature, when the January to March period is taken in aggregate, is higher than normal throughout Maldives particularly in the Central Region.  

Image: Rainfall deficit (in brown) in Central Maldives

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2012

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Highlights

Southern Maldivian islands which were considerably wet in September and October received only a little rainfall in November. Northern and Central islands have a rainfall deficit if the last 365 days are considered even though these islands received significant rainfall during October. Heavy rains are forecast for the week of 16-21. The warm Indian Ocean continues to persist around Maldives and the implications include warmer than average temperatures. There is tendency to drier climate in the next three months in the Southern Islands.  

Image: Rainfall observed in Southern Maldives. A significant deficit in rainfall is evident in November

 Image: Extremely heavy rainfall is predicted during 16th- 21st of December

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2012

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Highlights

Rainfall in Southern Maldives was higher than usual and as a result the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days was as expected from the 2003-2011 averages. The 365 day cumulative rainfall for both Central and Northern Maldives is below expected- the drought persists although rainfall was about average during the last two months as expected during an El Nino. El Nino conditions are beginning to weaken – so the usual increase in rainfall over Northern and Central Malidves in December may be reduced. The anomalously high sea surface temperatures near Maldives shall lead to warmer temperatures over the Malidves during the next three months and associated impacts on fisheries and other sectors.  

Image: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, 4-10 of November 2012

 Image: Cumulative precipitation in Southern Maldives compared to the average of 2003-2011. Notice that surplus rainfall compared to the average is observed for the first time in last 365 days in this region

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2012

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Highlights

After a wet August, rainfall continues to decrease in the first half of October in North and Central islands of Maldives and drought conditions continue to persist. In contrast, the Southern islands received highest recorded rainfall in September for the last 5 years. For the October-December season, wetter conditions are predicted for central Maldives and near-normal conditions are predicted for the southern regions. Warmer than average conditions driven by the warm Arabian Sea surface conditions shall be felt throughout the Maldives.  

Image: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, 7-13 of October 2012

 Image: Rainfall in Southern Maldives (Black) compared to the last five years.

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2012

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Highlights

Heavier than expected rainfall was observed over the Northern and Central islands of Maldives in the second half of August and the rainfall was diminished in the first two weeks of September. However, these rainfall has not compensated for the sustained drought persisting over the Northern and Central Islands.  Warming sea surfaces around Maldives and the tropical Eastern Pacific Oceans have contributed towards these conditions.  But in South Maldives, where the rainfall deficit over the last year was smaller, the heavier than expected rainfall compensated for the drought conditions to some extent.  

Image: Rainfall in 2012 (black) compared to rainfall in previous 5 years in Northern Maldives

 Image: Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in previous 8 years. Note the continuous increase in rainfall deficit.

Climate Change Trust Fund Launched in Maldives

The launch took place with the Vice President delivering the following prepared words.
there were various meeting in Maldives this week

The Climate Change Trust Fund for the Maldives arose out of the work of the previous government in 2010.  The management of the Trust Fund is by the World Bank. The renewable energy program of the previous government seems to have lost funding. 

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2012

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Highlights

DROUGHT AND WARMER SEAS

Drought over the Central Maldivian Islands continues and has been sustained for nearly a year. The Northern Islands too have been in significant drought in the last months. Warming sea surfaces around Maldives and Pacific Oceans have contributed towards these conditions.

Image: Sea Surface temperature anomaly 12th- 18th August 2012

Image: Cumulative precipitation in Northern Maldives in the past 365 days compared to the average precipitation of past 8 years in the region