Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – August 2025

          

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of August, the southern islands recorded the highest rainfall, reaching up to 40 mm per day, while the other islands received comparatively less. Northwesterly winds prevailed over the Maldives during July. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to be cooler within the next three months.

Monitored: In July, the northern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of July.   

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology: Historical Average of Climate

In September, islands in the northern half of the country receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
15th August	-	-	-
16th August	-	-	5 mm
17th August	-	TR	TR
18th August	-	TR	10 mm
21st August	-	-	TR
22nd August	-	TR	-
23rd August	TR	-	5 mm
24th August	-	TR	10 mm
25th August	-	-	20 mm
26th August	TR	5 mm	5 mm
27th August	20 mm	5 mm	40 mm
28th August	10 mm	10 mm	TR
29th August	20 mm	20 mm	-
30th August	50 mm	30 mm	TR
31st August	10 mm	10 mm	TR

TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In July, the northern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, and the central and southern islands received up to 5 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	31.80C	33.00C	32.00C
T Min	23.50C	25.10C	22.60C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 August, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

                                                          Central Islands:  40 mm rainfall 

                                                          Southern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

21-31 August, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

                                                            Central Islands:  40 mm rainfall 

                                                            Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State August 19, 2025:

As of mid-August 2025, ENSO-neutral conditions continue across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, there is an increasing likelihood of La Niña during September-November (SON) and October-December (OND) with probabilities rising to 39% and 44% respectively. There is a tendency towards La Niña conditions in the eastern Pacific Ocean. In contrast, sea surface temperature (SST) is slightly warmer than the average levels (0.5 °C), which is not typical for a developing La Niña phase.  (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 29 July - 4 August, 2025: 

0.5⁰C below average SST was observed around the northern islands and near-neutral SST was observed around the central and southern islands of Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
3rd September	TR	10 mm	40 mm
4th September	TR	10 mm	10 mm
5th September	TR	TR	-
6th September	10 mm	20 mm	TR
7th September	10 mm	TR	TR
8th September	10 mm	TR	TR
9th September	TR	10 mm	TR

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% in the northern islands and by 50% in the central islands; near-neutral in the southern islands between 13^th - 26^th September.   

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 45% probable in southern and northern islands; 60% probable in central islands of Maldives from September-October-November 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1,2 respectively in the next two weeks (8 – 22 September 2025). MJO in phase 1 and 2 will enhance the rainfall over the Maldives from 8^th- 22^th September.