Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – June 2025

        

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of June, the northern islands experienced the highest rainfall, reaching up to 50 mm per day, while remaining islands received less. ENSO-neutral state is likely in the summer 2025.

Monitored: In May, the northern and southern islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. Westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of May.   

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (82% chance in June-August) and may continue into winter 2025-26. though confidence is lower (48% chance of Neutral and 41% chance of La Niña in November-January).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
6th June	-	TR	-
7th June	-	TR	TR
8th June	TR	TR	10 mm
9th June	TR	TR	10 mm
10th June	10 mm	TR	30 mm
11th June	10 mm	TR	20 mm
12th June	20 mm	TR	40 mm
13th June	40 mm	10 mm	40 mm
14th June	40 mm	5 mm	TR
15th June	50 mm	30 mm	TR
16th June	10 mm	TR	TR
17th June	TR	-	-
18th June	TR	-	-
19th June	-	-	-
20th June	TR	-	-

TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In May, the northern and southern islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall, and the central islands received up to 10 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.40C	33.20C	33.00C
T Min	26.40C	22.70C	23.00C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

                                                       Central Islands:  80 mm rainfall 

                                                       Southern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

 11-20 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                          Central Islands:  20 mm rainfall 

                                                          Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 20, 2025:

As of mid-June 2025, the equatorial Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO plume forecast indicates a high probability (84%) of ENSO-neutral conditions for Jun-Aug 2025. These neutral conditions are expected to persist through the end of the forecast period. For later seasons (Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan), the probabilities for ENSO-neutral decrease slightly to 49% and 48%, respectively, but remain higher than those for either El Niño or La Niña. Looking ahead to the 2025/2026 period, ENSO-neutral once again becomes the dominant category, with probabilities of 50% for Dec-Feb, 55% for Jan-Mar, and 66% for Feb-Apr 2026, compared to El Niño and La Niña  (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 27 May - 2 June, 2025: 

Near-neutral SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
26th June	10 mm	20 mm	10 mm
27th June	20 mm	TR	-
28th June	40 mm	20 mm	20 mm
29th June	10 mm	20 mm	10 mm
30th June	TR	-	10 mm
01st July	TR	-	10 mm
02nd July	-	-	40 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 40% in the southern islands; near-neutral in the central and northern islands between 28^th June - 11^th July

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 60% probable in northern; while near-neutral tercile is probable in central islands; while above-normal tercile is 40% probable in southern islands from July-August-September 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1 respectively in the next two weeks (30 June – 14 July 2025). MJO in phase 1 will suppress the rainfall over the Maldives from 10^th - 14^th July.