Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – March 2023

    

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During February, the entire Maldives received less than 5 mm of rainfall. The average rainfall exceeded climatology in the central and southern islands by 29%; and was normal in the northern islands.

Predictions: La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue in the months ahead. Seasonal climate predictions predict a climatological average from April to June 2023 for the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of average rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands, it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increases up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
13th Mar	TR	5 mm	TR
14th Mar	TR	10 mm	20 mm
15th Mar	TR	20 mm	20 mm
16th Mar	TR	60 mm	TR
17th Mar	TR	TR	TR
18th Mar	TR	5 mm	30 mm
19th Mar	5 mm	TR	TR
20th Mar	5 mm	5 mm	5 mm
21st Mar	TR	30 mm	30 mm
22nd Mar	TR	TR	10 mm
23rd Mar	-	10 mm	5 mm
24th Mar	-	30 mm	10 mm
25th Mar	-	10 mm	30 mm
26th Mar	TR	10 mm	10 mm
27th Mar	TR	TR	TR

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In February, The Maldives received less than 5 mm of rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Equal to the average of 1575 mm average

    Central islands: Excess of 350 mm from an average of 1200 mm average

    Southern islands: Excess of 350 mm from an average of 1200 mm average

 

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10  Mar, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 50 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Central Islands: 80 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

11-20 Mar, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Central Islands: 70 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Southern Islands: 50 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March 20, 2023:

In mid-March 2023, the previous negative SST anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific weakened further but the basin is now in an ENSO-neutral state. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are now consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. CPC issued a Final La Niña Advisory in March 2023, signaling the end of the event. Most models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast SSTs in the ENSO-neutral state during Apr-Jun, and May-Jul, 2023. The likelihood of El Niño remains low during Apr-Jun (21%), increasing to 49% in May-Jul, and then becomes the dominant category from Jun-Aug onward with probabilities in the 60-67%. ENSO-neutral is the next most-likely category, with probabilities remaining in the range of 31-35%. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on February 1, 2023: 

SST was observed near-neutral around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
30th Mar	-	-	20 mm
31st Mar	-	TR	10 mm
1st Apr	-	TR	-
2nd Apr	-	TR	TR
3rd Apr	-	TR	-
4th Apr	-	-	-

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 45-50% in the central islands and by 40% in the northern and southern islands between 1^st- 14^th April.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands; and near-normal condition is probable in the northern and central islands from Apr-May-June 2023 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 3,6 & 7 respectively in the next two weeks (28 Mar – 11 Apr 2023). MJO in phases 6 & 7 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.