Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – November 2022

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During September, the central islands received up to 15 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less. The average rainfall exceeded climatology in the central and southern islands by 20%; and was in deficit by 6% in the northern islands.

Predictions: A La Niña is expected to continue in the months ahead. Seasonal climate predictions predict a climatological average from December to February 2023 for the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. Usually, in January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm, and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly. In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm rain. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
16th Nov	10 mm	30 mm	-
17th Nov	10 mm	40 mm	-
18th Nov	20 mm	40 mm	-
19th Nov	10 mm	20 mm	TR
20th Nov	40 mm	20 mm	5 mm
21st Nov	30 mm	20 mm	10 mm
22nd Nov	TR	TR	TR
23rd Nov	TR	TR	TR
24th Nov	TR	10 mm	-
25th Nov	-	TR	5 mm
26th Nov	TR	TR	10 mm
27th Nov	TR	TR	TR
28th Nov	TR	-	TR
29th Nov	-	-	5 mm
30th Nov	10 mm	TR	-

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In November, the central islands received up to 15 mm; while remaining islands received less. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Deficit of 100 mm from an average of 1600 mm average

     Central islands: Excess of 250 mm from an average of 1250 mm average

     Southern islands: Excess of 250 mm from an average of 1250 mm average

 

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             11-20  Nov, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

                                                                     Central Islands: 200 mm rainfall 
                                                                     Southern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

21-30 Nov, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Central Islands: 10 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Southern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 18, 2022 :

In mid-November, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, though there is a large drop in SOI value recently (+6.9 as of 16 November, 2022). A CPC La Niña Advisory still remains in place for November 2022. Several models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a La Niña until at least Jan-Mar 2023.The official CPC/IRI outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability during Dec-Feb, which decreases to 56% in Jan-Mar 2023.Based on objective ENSO forecasts, La Niña is expected to transition into ENSO-neutral during Feb-Apr 2023, which remains the most likely category until Jun-Aug 2023. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on November 30, 2022: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
9th Dec	40 mm	40 mm	20 mm
10th Dec	10 mm	40 mm	20 mm
11th Dec	10 mm	40 mm	40 mm
12th Dec	10 mm	20 mm	20 mm
13th Dec	10 mm	40 mm	20 mm
14th Dec	10 mm	40 mm	20 mm
15th Dec	10 mm	20 mm	20 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% in the central islands between 3^rd - 16^th Dec.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 45% probable in the central islands; and 40% probable in the southern islands from Dec-Jan-Feb 2023 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 6 & 7 and shall strengthen in the next two weeks (12 Dec – 26 Dec 2022). MJO in phases 6 & 7 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.