Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – July 2022

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During June, the entire Maldives islands received up to 5 mm of above average rainfall. The average rainfall exceeded climatology in the northern islands by 15%; and was in deficit by 29% in the central islands and by 16% in the southern islands.

Predictions: A weak La Niña is expected to continue in the months ahead. Seasonal climate predictions predict a climatological average from August to October 2022 for the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
9th July	10 mm	20 mm	5 mm
10th July	30 mm	10 mm	-
11th July	-	-	-
12th July	-	-	-
13th July	-	-	-
14th July	10 mm	-	-
15th July	-	-	-
16th July	20 mm	20 mm	-
17th July	50 mm	80 mm	30 mm
18th July	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
19th July	10 mm	50 mm	30 mm
20th July	80 mm	50 mm	10 mm
21st July	20 mm	40 mm	30 mm
22nd July	-	30 mm	20 mm
23rd July	-	30 mm	-

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: : In June, the entire Maldives islands received up to 5 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 225 mm from an average of 1525 mm average

     Central islands: Deficit of 500 mm from an average of 1700 mm average
     Southern islands: Deficit of 280 mm from an average of 1800 mm average

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10  July, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 150 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Central Islands: 150 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Southern Islands: 150 mm rainfall 

11-20 July, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Central Islands: 100 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Southern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State July 19, 2022 :

In mid-July, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, although weakened. A La Niña Advisory still remains in place for July 2022.  A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña until at least Sep-Nov 2022. The official CPC/IRI outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with moderate probability (68% chance) during Aug-Oct 2022, continuing into boreal fall and early winter with 63-70% likelihood, with ENSO-neutral becoming the most likely category in Jan-Mar 2023 onward. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on July 20, 2022: 

SST was observed near neutral around Maldives. But the wider Indian ocean SST showing the character of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
26th July	70 mm	40 mm	10 mm
27th July	40 mm	40 mm	20 mm
28th July	10 mm	20 mm	20 mm
29th July	10 mm	10 mm	20 mm
30th July	70 mm	40 mm	40 mm
31st July	70 mm	40 mm	20 mm
1st August	20 mm	20 mm	100 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 60% in the northern and central islands and tercile by 45% in the southern islands between 30^th Jul - 12^th Aug.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 45% probable in the central islands and 40% probable in the northern islands from Aug-Sept-Oct 2022 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1 & 2 and shall strengthen in the next two weeks (25 July – 8 Aug 2022). MJO in phases 1 & 2 usually enhance rainfall over the Maldives.