Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – May 2022

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During April, the northern and central islands received up to 10mm of rainfall while the remaining islands received less. The average rainfall exceeded climatology in the Northern islands by 14%; and was in deficit by 40% in the Central islands and by 7% in the southern islands.

Predictions: A weak La Niña is expected to continue in the months ahead. Seasonal climate predictions predict a climatological average from June to August 2022 for the Maldives

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In June, average rainfall usually is about 250 mm in the northern islands and 150 mm in the southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually westerly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed are similar to previous months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
1th May	5 mm	20 mm	10 mm
2nd May	10 mm	5 mm	10 mm
3rd May	30 mm	50 mm	100 mm
4th May	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
5th May	50 mm	40 mm	40 mm
6th May	10 mm	-	5 mm
7th May	20 mm	-	10 mm
8th May	10 mm	20 mm	50 mm
9th May	20 mm	10 mm	80 mm
10th May	40 mm	10 mm	50 mm
11th May	-	80 mm	5 mm
12th May	50 mm	10 mm	-
13th May	50 mm	40 mm	-
14th May	80 mm	40 mm	-
15th May	40 mm	-	-

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In April, the northern and central islands received up to 10 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 200 mm from an average of 1450 mm average

     Central islands: Deficit of 675 mm from an average of 1700 mm average

     Southern islands: Deficit of 125 mm from an average of 1800 mm average

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             21-30  April, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 50 mm rainfall 

                                                                       Central Islands:  50 mm rainfall 
                                                                       Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

 1-10 May, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Central Islands:  80 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Southern Islands: 250 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State May 19, 2022 :

In mid-May, SSTs remained below-average (strengthening slightly) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, although easterly winds and cold subsurface temperatures have weakened slightly. A La Niña Advisory still remained in place for May 2022.A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to stay below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña until Jun-Aug 2022.  The official CPC/IRI outlook also forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability during May-Jul. (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on May 18, 2022: 

0.5 ⁰C below average SST was observed around the northern and the central Islands.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 10 mm of rainfall in central islands; and neutral for southern islands on 25^th May; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and neutral for central and southern islands on 26^th May; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 10 mm of rainfall in central islands; and neutral for southern islands on 27^th May; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 20 mm of rainfall in central islands; and up to 10 mm of rainfall in southern islands on 28^th May; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 40 mm of rainfall in central islands; and up to 10 mm of rainfall in southern islands on 29^th May; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 40 mm of rainfall in central islands; and up to 10 mm of rainfall in southern islands on 30^th May; and up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 20 mm of rainfall in central islands; and up to 10 mm of rainfall in southern islands on 31^st May. 

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile in the southern and some of the central islands and below-normal tercile for the rest between 28^thMay - 10^th June.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands and near normal for the northern and central islands from June-July-August 2022 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 6 & 7 and shall weaken in the next two weeks (25 May- 7 June 2022). MJO in phases 6 & 7 usually suppress rainfall over the Maldives.