Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – October 2021

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During October, the Northern received above-normal rainfall while the Central and Southern islands received less. Over the last 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 21% in the Northern islands; 5% in the Southern islands and was in deficit by 22% in the Central islands.

Predictions: La Niña tendency is predicted in months ahead and this results in the dry tendency in the Central and Southern Islands for November to January 2021. 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In November, the whole country usually receives up to 200 mm rain. The wind is westerly. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. In January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
17th Oct	40 mm	20 mm	-
18th Oct	10 mm	30 mm	10 mm
19th Oct	5 mm	-	10 mm
20th Oct	-	-	20 mm
21st Oct	5 mm	-	-
22nd Oct	10 mm	-	-
23rd Oct	10 mm	10 mm	-
24th Oct	5 mm	10 mm	-
25th Oct	20 mm	30 mm	5 mm
26th Oct	5 mm	10 mm	20 mm
27th Oct	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
28th Oct	5 mm	5 mm	10 mm
29th- 30th Oct	10 mm	-	10 mm
31st Oct	10 mm	5 mm	40 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In October, Northern islands received up to 10 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less.

The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 325 mm from an average of 1550 mm average

     Central islands: Deficit of 400 mm from an average of 1750 mm average
     Southern islands: Excess of 100 mm from an average of 1850 mm average

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:
  11-20  October, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

                                                                 Central Islands:  60 mm rainfall 

                                                                 Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

 21-31 October, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

                                                               Central Islands:  40 mm rainfall 

                                                               Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State October 31, 2021 :

In mid-October, SSTs in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific are below average. The evolution of key atmospheric variables is consistent with La Niña conditions, and therefore, a La Niña Advisory has been issued for Oct 2021. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs to cool further through boreal autumn and winter, and then return to ENSO-neutral levels during spring. The official CPC/IRI outlook also anticipates a La Niña event with high probability during Oct-Dec and persisting until Jan-Mar, with a return to ENSO-neutral conditions with high probabilities for rest of the forecast period. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on October 31, 2021: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 20 mm in central and southern islands on 3^rd Oct - 4^th Nov; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 5^th Nov; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 6^th Nov; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the in the northern islands; and up to 40 mm in central and southern islands on 7^th Nov; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 8^th Nov;  and up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 20 mm in the central islands ; and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 9^thNov.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 50% in the Northern islands; below-normal tercile by 40% in the Central islands; and neutral tercile in the Southern islands between 6^th – 12^th November.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal precipitation tercile is 40% probable in the northern islands; And Below- normal precipitation tercile is 45% probable in the central and southern islands from November- December-January 2021 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological. 

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 3 & 4 in the next two weeks over the Maldives. and it shall enhance the rainfall during 4^th – 8^th November and suppress the rainfall during 9^th – 18^th November.