Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – October 2020

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored:  During September, the northern and central islands received above normal rainfall while the Southern half of Maldives received less. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 27% in the Northern islands by 33%. 

The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 0.5 ⁰C  above normal. 

Predictions: With weak La Nina conditions from October anticipated, dry conditions are set to prevail across the Maldives from October-December 2020. However, the seasonal temperature remains climatological – perhaps the La Nina influence is countervailed by the prevailing anomalously warm ocean.

 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In October, the northern half of the country usually receives up to 200 mm rain while the southern half receives up to 250 mm rain. Wind is westerly. The entire country usually receives up to 200 mm rain in November with no change in the wind direction from October. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Southern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

 Fortnightly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
12th October 2020	Up to 15 mm in the central islands.
13th - 14th October 2020	Up to 20 mm in the central islands.
15th October 2020	Up to 30 mm in the northern and central islands.
16th October 2020	Up to 30 mm in the central islands and up to 15 mm in northern islands.
17th - 20th October 2020	No Rainfall.
21st October 2020	Up to 15 mm in the northern and central islands.
22nd October 2020	Up to 40 mm in the central islands; and up to 15 mm in northern islands.
23rd October 2020	Up to 10 mm in the central islands.
24th October 2020	Up to 40 mm in the northern islands; and up to 20 mm in central islands.
25th October 2020	Up to 40 mm in the northern islands; and up to 20 mm in central islands.

Monthly and SST Monitoring:

In September, northern and central islands received 10 mm and southern islands received up to 5 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days, shows for:

 Northern islands: Excess of 400 mm from an average of 1500 mm average.
Central islands: Excess of 100 mm from an average of 1700 mm average.
Southern islands: Excess of 250 mm from an average of 1800 mm average.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State October 21, 2020:

In late-October 2020, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch.

Indian Ocean Monitoring October 21, 2020: 

0.5⁰ C  above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was slightly suppressed in phase 2 and phase 3 from 7^th– 16^th of Oct and significantly suppressed from 17^th– 21^st of Oct.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

IMD GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of rainfall in the norther and central islands on 29^th Oct; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands on 30^th Oct; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands on 31^st Oct; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; and up to 20 mm in central islands on 1^st Nov; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the southern islands on 2^nd Nov; and up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 3^rd Nov. According to NOAA CFS model up to 25 mm of rain is expected for 24^th – 29^th September in the entire country and no extreme rainfall for coming six days.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Southern: The above normal temperature tercile is 50% probable and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.
Central:  The above normal temperature tercile is 50% probable and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.
Northern: The near normal temperature tercile is 40% probable and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.