Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – June 2020

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored:  During June, the northern and southern islands received above normal rainfall while the central islands of Maldives received less. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 25% in the Northern islands by 33%.

SST around Maldives is anomalously warm by 1⁰ C. 

Predictions: Between 24^th – 29^th June, up to 50 mm rain is expected in the northern and central islands and no extreme rainfall for coming six days. With weak La Niña condition from July anticipated, dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from July-September 2020.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In June, average rainfall usually is about 250 mm in the northern islands and 150 mm in the southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually westerly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed are similar to previous months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

 Fortnightly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
5th June 2020	Up to 50 mm in the northern islands.
6th June 2020	Up to 20 mm in the southern and central islands and up to 15 mm in northern islands.
7th June 2020	Up to 50 mm in the southern islands and up to 15 mm in central islands.
8th June 2020	Up to 15 mm in the northern and southern islands.
9th June 2020	Up to 15 mm in the southern islands.
10th June 2020	Up to 15 mm in the southern and central islands.
11th June 2020	Up to 30 mm in the southern islands.
12th June 2020	Up to 15 mm in the northern islands.
13th June 2020	Up to 60 mm in the southern and central islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands
14th June 2020	Up to 15 mm in the northern and central islands.
15th June 2020	Up to 30 mm in the southern islands.
16th June 2020	Up to 15 mm in the southern and central islands.
17th June 2020	No rainfall.
18th June 2020	Up to 50 mm in the central islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands.
19th June 2020	Up to 20 mm in the northern and central islands.

Monthly and SST Monitoring:

In June, northern and Southern islands received 10 mm and central islands received up to 6 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days, shows for:

Northern islands: Excess of 300 mm from an average of 1200 mm average.

Central islands: Excess of 300 mm from an average of 1375 mm.

Southern islands: Excess of 350 mm from an average of 1600 mm.

The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1⁰ C above average. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 24, 2020:

In late-June 2020, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold while the atmosphere continues to maintain either ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña patterns. The latest ENSO prediction models indicate weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is ENSO-neutral in Summer, with equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter.

Indian Ocean Monitoring June 24, 2020: 

1⁰ C  above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO significantly enhanced rainfall in during 15^th -19^th of June; and slightly enhanced during 20^th– 29^th of June.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS model up to 50 mm of rain is expected for 24^th – 29^th June in the northern and central islands; up to 25 mm in southern islands and no extreme rainfall for coming six days.