Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During May, northern parts of the country received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 100 mm; and central and southern islands received normal rainfall. The southern islands recorded the highest rainfall for the period in the past six years. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1°C above normal. This is extremely warm.

Predictions:  IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands on June 17th. On the 18th, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern and northern islands. On the 19th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands.  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country next week.

 Northern islands received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 100 mm

 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In June, average rainfall usually is about 250 mm in the northern islands and 150 mm in the southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually westerly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed is similar to previous months.

MONITORING

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
23rd May	Up to 50 mm in the entire country.
24th May	Up to 50 mm in northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands.
25th May	Up to 20 mm in northern and southern islands.
26th   May	Up to 20 mm in the entire country.
27th May	More than 140 mm in central islands and up to 50 mm in the southern islands.
28th May	No Rainfall.
29th May	Up to 50 mm in northern and central islands.
30th May	More than 140 mm in central and southern islands.
31st May	Up to 70 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In May, southern and central islands received normal rainfall for the season; and northern islands received up to 100 mm rainfall above than normal. The central and southern islands received up to 600 mm of total rainfall; and northern islands up to 300 mm. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 13, 2019:

SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak El Niño level during May and early June, and temperature anomalies of subsurface waters were slightly above average. Some patterns in the atmosphere show weak El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019

Indian Ocean Monitoring May 29, 2019: 

1 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 8 from May 13-25; in Phase 1 from May 26-29; and in Phase 1 from May 30-31. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands on June 17^th. On the 18^th, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern and northern islands. On the 19^th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. On the 20^th and 21^st daily rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. On the 22^nd rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands. On the 23^rd rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in the central islands.