Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2018

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During November, most parts of the country received rainfall below than is normal for the season by up to 120 mm. The Northern Islands have been having a rainfall deficit in the last year compared to normal rainfall, that increased up to 300 mm during November.  The Central Islands have an excess of 250 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Southern Islands are having an excess of 400 mm. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is above  0.5 ⁰C normal. 
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; up to 10 mm in northern and central islands on December 3rd and 4th. On the 5th and 6th up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands. Long Range Weather prediction simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 100 mm for central islands during December 1st-6th. 

In November, the southern islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall.

 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. Usually in January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm rain. Wind is north easterly.

MONITORING

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
16th-22nd  November 2018	No Rainfall.
23rd November 2018	Up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in the northern islands.
24th  November 2018	Up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
25th November 2018	Up to 20 mm in central islands.
26th November 2018	Up to 5 mm in southern islands.
27th November 2018	Up to 20 mm in central islands.
28th November 2018	Up to 100 mm in central islands; up to 30 mm in southern islands; and up to 20 mm in northern islands.
29th November 2018	Up to 50 mm in northern and central islands.
30th November 2018	Up to 5 mm in central and southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In November, Huvadhoo atolls received up to 60 mm of rainfall above the monthly average. Rest of the country received rainfall up to 120 mm below the monthly average. The southern islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall; northern and central islands up to 300 mm

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 19, 2018:

El Niño-level SSTs were observed in the October average, and the subsurface waters also continued to be markedly warmer than average. However, the atmospheric variables showed mainly ENSO-neutral patterns. Only lower-level wind anomalies averaged weakly westerly in the eastern Pacific–a suggestion of El Niño. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for an 80% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and a 55-60% chance of continuing into spring 2019.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring September 26, 2018: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from Nov 2-5; in Phase 3 from Nov 6-8; and in Phase 4 from Nov 9 -12. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 40 mm of is expected in the southern islands; up to 10 mm in northern and central islands on December 3rd and 4th. On the 5th and 6th up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands. On the 7th, up to 20 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands; up to 10 mm in northern islands . On the 8th, up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; and up to 20 mm in central and southern islands.