Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2018

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During January, Northern and Central islands received average rainfall compared to the monthly average since 2003; and southern island of 140 mm below the monthly average. The central islands received up to 200 mm of total rainfall; and northern and southern islands up to 90 mm. 
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 ⁰C below average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of rain on February 25th in the northern islands. Up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country country on 26th and 27th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.   

Central islands received up to 200 mm of total rainfall in January

 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In February, northern islands receive average rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it’s northwesterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
16th  January 2018	Up to 50 mm in southern islands.
17th-21st  January 2018	No Rainfall.
22nd  January 2018	Up to 10 mm in northern and central islands.
23rd January 2018	Up to 10 mm in central and southern islands.
24th January 2018	Up to 10 mm in northern and central islands.
25th-26th  January 2018	No Rainfall.
27th January 2018	Up to 10 mm in northern and central islands.
28th-30th January 2018	No Rainfall.
31st January 2018	Up to 20 mm in northern islands.
1st February 2018	No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In January,  Northern islands received up to 200 mm of below average rainfall and southern island up to 140 mm. Central islands received normal rainfall compared to the past average. The central islands received up to 200 mm of total rainfall; and northern and southern islands up to 90 mm during this period

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State February 19, 2018:

In mid-February 2018, the tropical Pacific reflected La Niña conditions, with SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific in the range of weak to moderate La Niña and most key atmospheric variables showing patterns suggestive of La Niña conditions. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for La Niña continuing through at least early spring, followed by a likely return to neutral conditions around mid-spring. Support for this scenario is provided by the latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring February 14, 2018: 

0.5 ⁰C below average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from 1-12 Jan and in Phase 3 from 13-16 Jan. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 10 mm of rain is expected in central and southern islands on February 22nd, 23rd and 24th. Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands on the 25th. On the 26th and 27th up to 10 mm rainfall is expected in the entire island.