Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2017

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During August, northern and central islands received below average rainfall; and many of the southern islands received average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year has been decreased to 13% in the Northern and to 5% in the Central Islands. Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 200 mm; and the Central islands by 50 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. 
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 ⁰C above average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate heavy rainfall in the northern islands in the next week.     

The Northern and Southern islands received up to 300 mm rainfall and Central islands up to 150 mm in  August.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In September islands in the northern half of the country receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
19th-20th August 2017	No Rainfall.
21st August 2017	Up to 30 mm in northern islands and up to 30 mm in central islands.
22nd August 2017	No Rainfall..
23rd August 2017	Up to 10 mm in central islands.
24th-25th August 2017	Up to 10 mm in southern islands.
26th-27th August 2017	No Rainfall.
28th-29th August 2017	Up to 10 mm in northern islands.
30th August 2017	Up to 20 mm of rainfall in northern islands and up to 10 mm in central islands.
31st August 2017	Up to 30 mm of rainfall in central islands and up to 20 mm in southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In August, northern islands and northern regions of Huvadhu atoll received below average rainfall up to 60 mm; and central islands up to 120 mm. Rest of the southern islands received above average rainfall up to 60 mm.  The northern and southern islands received up to 300 mm of rainfall; and central islands up to 150 mm during this period. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State August 18, 2017:

In mid-August 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with near-average SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific and the atmosphere also maintaining ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition through Northern Hemisphere fall and into winter with chances for El Niño or La Niña development less than one-half that for neutral.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring August 30, 2017: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from 24-28 of August and in Phase 3 on 29-30. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 20 mm of rain is expected on September 5th in the northern and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands. On the 6th southern and central islands expected to receive up to 40 mm of rainfall and northern islands up to 20 mm. During 7th- 8th up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; up to 20 mm in the central; and up to 10 mm in southern islands. During 9th- 12th up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in central islands.