Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

In July, northern and central islands received up to 200 mm above average rainfall while southern islands received up to 100 mm below average rainfall. The amount of rainfall received by northern and central islands is the highest amount received in past six years in these regions. Since the last week of July a decrease in rainfall throughout the country was visible and the first week of August was mostly dry. Heavy rainfall was received by central islands in late August. During August, the sea and land temperatures remained warmer than climatological. The wind speeds were high due to the SW Monsoon.

Northern islands received up to 200 mm rainfall in July

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In August islands in the northern half of the country receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
15th Aug 2016	No rain
16th Aug 2016	Up to 60 mm in central & southern islands
17th & 18th Aug 2016	Up to 15 mm in south central islands & up to 80 mm in southern islands and sea
19th Aug 2016	Up to 60mm in central islands
20th Aug 2016	Up to 60 mm in the entire country except southern-most islands
21st & 22nd Aug 2016	Up to 60 mm in the entire country
23rd Aug 2016	Up to 40 mm in northern islands and up to 20 mm in central islands
24th Aug 2016	No Rainfall
25th Aug 2016	Up to 10 mm in norther-most islands
26th Aug 2016	Up to 60 mm in central islands and 20 mm in northern islands
27th & 28th Aug 2016	Up to 80 mm in the entire country
29th Aug 2016	Up to 60 mm in central islands 20 mm in southern & 10 mm in northern island

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In July 2016 the entire country received ~150 mm rainfall above the climatological average except for Huvadhu atoll which received ~50 mm below the climatological average. In northern islands highest recorded rainfall this year (~200 mm) was received in July. This is the highest ever rainfall observed in northern islands during the past 6 years. Only up to ~30 mm rain was received in August. Central islands too received ~100 mm high rainfall in July and ~30 mm in August. Southern islands received very low amounts of rainfall in July and ~100 mm in early August.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State Aug 18, 2016:

During mid-August 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was close to -0.5C, approaching the weak La Niña threshold. However, most key atmospheric variables continue to indicate neutral ENSO conditions. Although the upper level winds in the tropical Pacific are slightly suggestive of La Niña, the lower level winds remain near average. The Southern Oscillation index and the pattern of cloudiness and rainfall in the equatorial Pacific also indicate neutral ENSO despite a mild tilt toward La Niña. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs most likely near the borderline of cool-neutral and weak La Niña from the present through fall and into winter.

Indian Ocean Monitoring August 24, 2016: 

~1⁰C below average SST was observed in Laccadive sea

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IRI GFS model up to 50 mm total rain is expected in the Maldives during 30th Aug- 4th Sep. Only up to 10 mm/day rainfall is expected until the 4th and no rainfall is expected on 5th & 6th.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for September to November 2016, there is a 40% chance than rainfall shall be below average in central islands. The 3-month average temperature has a 50- 60% likelihood in northern islands and 70- 80% in southern islands, to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months in the entire country.