Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

Rainfall in the Maldives continued to follow an increasing trend in October 2015. Heavy rainfall was observed throughout the country during late October to early November period. Southern islands received extremely heavy rainfall which resulted in floods in many southern atolls. The deficit in rainfall is only seen in northern islands while central and southern islands have received above average rainfall in the past year. Rainfall in the next 3 months shall have an above average tendency in the Northern and Central regions. Temperatures shall be warmer than the seasonal average throughout the country.

Rainfall in Southern Maldives in the last 6 years with this year's rainfall as the solid black line. A significant increase in rainfall was observed during late October - early November 2015 which caused floods in many southern atolls.

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In October Northern and central islands usually receive up to 200 mm rainfall while southern islands usually receive up to 250 mm. In November similar rainfall is typically observed throughout the country which shall be up to 200 mm but in December there is a variation in rainfall from north to south. Rainfall is typically up to 150 mm in Northern islands and increase towards the south with central islands usually receiving up to 200 mm and southern islands usually receiving up to 250 mm. Normally there are strong easterly winds throughout the country in October and in southern islands in November. In December there usually is south westerly wind.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

On the 10th November the entire country did not receive any significant amount of rainfall. Then on the 11th up to 80 mm rainfall was observed in central and southern islands while more than 100 mm rainfall was observed in the eastern sea. Rainfall gradually decreased on 12th and 13th and from the 14th until the 21st no rainfall was observed in the entire country. Up to 20 mm rainfall was observed in northern islands on 22nd and 23rd. Then on the 24th southern islands received up to 30 mm rainfall and up to 140 mm rainfall was observed further south in the Indian Ocean.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In October 2015 Northern islands received up to 300 mm rainfall while central and southern islands received about 450 mm and 600 mm respectively. The increasing trend of rainfall throughout the Maldives persisted during October 2015 as well. A large peak in rainfall was observed in late October to early November period throughout the country. In Northern islands the highest rainfall recorded this year was observed during this period. Central islands too received heavy rainfall but not as high as the rainfall in the previous month. In southern islands there was a massive increase in rainfall during late October to early November where rainfall was tripled compared to the previous month. This rainfall is the highest observed amount in the last 6 years.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 19, 2015:

During late October through mid-November 2015 the tropical Pacific SST was at a strong El Niño level. All atmospheric variables strongly support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east-central tropical Pacific. The consensus of -prediction models indicate continuation of strong El Niño conditions during the November-January 2015-16 season in progress. Some slight further strengthening is possible into the April, with the event slowly weakening thereafter.

Indian Ocean Monitoring November 20, 2015: 

~0.5 degrees Celcius Warmer than usual Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives as is typical for an El Nino.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS models, less than 50 mm rainfall is expected during 25th- 30th November. Heavy rainfall is expected in western and south eastern seas during this period.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for December 2015 to February 2016, there is 40% probability for total 3 month precipitation shall be above average in central. During an El Nino higher rainfall is usual during October- December Season in northern and central islands. But during January- March it is dry during an El Nino. The 3 month average temperature has a 70- 80% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months.