Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

In April 2015 less than average monthly rainfall was observed throughout the Maldives. Usually the rainfall is high in April and the relatively high rainfall in the first two weeks in northern and southern islands was not sufficient to put this above the long-term average. The first week of May saw more than 100 mm rainfall in northern and southern islands and low rainfall in the central islands. The cumulative deficit of rainfall for the past year shows about 25% below normal for the northern islands and close to normal for the southern and central islands. The NOAA CFS models predict up to 50 mm in the next few from 20-25th May. A clean El Nino has onset in the Maldives and this coupled with the warmer Indian Ocean shall lead to warmer months in the next six months. The Central and Northern Islands are likely to have a dry tendency for the next four months followed by a wet tendency from October to December.

Below average rainfall observed in the entire country in March 2015

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

Usually the average precipitation in May normally is about 200 mm throughout the country. High precipitation is usually observed closer to south-western coast of India in June and gradually decreases from north to south of Maldives (about 400 mm in northern island and about 200 mm in southern islands). In July the rainfall decreases down to about 150 mm in northern islands and about 200 mm in central and southern islands. Wind direction is usually south-westerly in March and in April northern islands receive south-easterly wind while southern islands receive easterly wind. Strong easterly wind is usually observed in May and in June only northern islands get strong easterly wind. In July the entire country usually do not receive strong wind.

Climatology

Monitoring

On the 12th of May up to 30 mm rain was observed in northern and southern islands. Then on the 13th rainfall ceased in northern islands while up to 100 mm heavy rain was observed in southern islands. No rainfall was observed on the 14th and 15th and low rainfall was observed on the 16th, 17th and 18th in southern and northern islands.