Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

During December below average rainfall was observed throughout Maldives contributing to a further increase in the rainfall deficit which had persisted throughout the previous year. Despite having relatively higher rainfall towards the end of the year 2014, the rainfall deficit in southern islands too has reached to a magnitude of about 15% of expected rainfall during the year. Most of ENSO prediction models indicate a weak El Nino condition during January to March.

Rainfall Anomaly over Maldives in December 2014. Notice that below average rainfall was observed in the entire country which is shown in brown.

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In February, northern islands receive around 50 mm rainfall and this increases up to 150 mm in southern islands. The same rainfall pattern can be observed in March as well. In April rainfall increases throughout the country with northern islands receiving rainfall up to 100 mm and southern islands receiving rainfall up to 200 mm. Wind direction is south -westerly in February and March and in April northern islands receive south-easterly wind while southern islands receive easterly wind.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

On 28 th and 29 th January southern islands received up to 100 mm rainfall. Thereafter significant amounts of rainfall was not observed in any part of the country.

 Weekly Monitoring

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

During December 2014, less than 10 mm average rainfall was observed throughout the Maldives resulting in a below average rainfall in the entire country. The rainfall deficit is high in the entire country which is roughly 30% in the northern islands and central islands and about 15% in southern islands.

 Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State January 15, 2015:

During December 2014 through early January 2015 the SST exceeded thresholds for weak Niño conditions, although the anomaly level has weakened recently. Meanwhile, only some of the atmospheric variables indicate an El Niño pattern. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the January-March season in progress, continuing through most or all of northern spring 2015.

(Text Courtesy- IRI)

Indian Ocean State January 31, 2015:

Neutral Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives.

 Ocean State Monitoring

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA models, heavy rainfall up to 100 mm in total is expected in central islands and up to 75 mm in southern islands during 4 th - 9 th February 2015


 Weekly Rainfall Forecast

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for February to April, the total 3 month precipitation shall be in below-normal tercile with a 40% probability. The 3 month average temperature has a 60- 70% likelihood for central islands and about 90% likelihood for southern-most islands of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.

 Seasonal Prediction