Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2014

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Highlights

Up to 100 mm rainfall was observed in Central to Northern islands of Maldives in the first three weeks of November 2014. Extremely heavy rainfall is expected to continue during the next week in the same region as well as in the north-eastern sea of The Maldives. Despite this heavy rainfall, the precipitation received has not been enough to shrink the rainfall deficit persisted for several months.  

Image: Rainfall anomaly continues to grow in Northern islands of Maldives. The same is observed throughout the country

Summary

CLIMATOLOGY

Monthly Climatology: 

During October Northern islands receive rainfall up to 100 mm and the rainfall increases towards Southern islands of the country which receive up to 250 mm of rainfall. Rainfall in the southern islands shall decrease down to 200 mm in November, December and January. In February the rainfall further decreases in the entire Maldives.

MONITORING

Weekly Monitoring: 

During 16th – 21st November the entire country received rainfall. Central islands received up to 100 mm rainfall while very heavy rainfall was observed in the sea around Maldives as well. Northern and Southern islands received up to 80 mm rainfall during this period.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

During October a decreasing trend of rainfall was observed in Northern, Central and Southern islands of Maldives. But this downward trend has reversed during the first three weeks of November. The rainfall deficit observed in Maldives persists.

PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

According to NOAA models, extremely heavy rainfall is expected during 22nd -27th November in Northern and Southern Maldives as well as in the sea North-east of the country.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for November to January precipitation and temperature is likely to be 45- 50% above normal for Central Islands while its climatological in Northern and Southern.

Pacific Seas State November 20, 2014

During late October through early November the SST exceeded thresholds for weak Niño conditions, although only some of the atmospheric variables indicate an El Niño pattern. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the November-January season in progress, continuing well into the northern spring 2015..

(Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean State November 15, 2014

Neutral sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives.

Inside this Issue

1.       Monthly Climatology

2.       Rainfall Monitoring

a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates

b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate

c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring

d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies

3.       Rainfall Predictions

a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP

b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI

More...

FECT BLOG Sri Lanka

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FECT WEBSITE

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and

FECT MALDIVES WEBSITE

http://www.tropicalclimate.org/maldives