Friday, December 27, 2019

‘Worrying’ rise in sea-levels in Indian Ocean basin: Study (December 25, 2019)

Click here to view the original article: ‘Worrying’ rise in sea-levels in the Indian Ocean basin

‘Worrying’ rise in sea-levels in the Indian Ocean basin: Study

Sea-level reconstructions over the past two millennia provide a pre-industrial context to assess whether the magnitude and rate of modern sea-level change is unprecedented, the researchers said.


Toronto, Dec 24, 2019, PTI: The sea levels in the central Indian Ocean have risen by close to a meter in the last two centuries, according to a study. The research, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, provides new details about sea levels in the past.

"We know that certain types of fossil corals act as important recorders of past sea levels" said Professor Paul Kench from Simon Fraser University in Canada.

"By measuring the ages and the depths of these fossil corals, we are identifying that there have been periods several hundred years ago that the sea level has been much lower than we thought in parts of the Indian Ocean," Kench said.

Sea-level reconstructions over the past two millennia provide a pre-industrial context to assess whether the magnitude and rate of modern sea-level change is unprecedented, the researchers said. Understanding where sea levels have been historically, and what happens as they rise, will provide greater insights into how coral reef systems and islands may be able to respond to the changes in sea levels in the future, they said.

The ongoing study, which began in 2017, underscores the serious threat posed to coastal cities and communities in the region, the researchers said. It also suggests that if such acceleration continues over the next century, sea levels in the Indian Ocean will have risen to their highest level ever in recorded history, they said.

The study titled ‘Climate-forced sea-level lowstands in the Indian Ocean during the last two millennia,’ was conducted by Prof Kench, Roger F. McLean, Susan D. Owen, Emma Ryan, Kyle M Morgan, Lin Ke, Xianfeng Wang and Keven Roy.

The researchers in their abstract of the final report said: Sea-level reconstructions over the past two millennia provide a pre-industrial context to assess whether the magnitude and rate of modern sea-level change is unprecedented. Sea-level records from the Indian Ocean over the past 2,000 years are sparse, while records from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans show variations less than 0.25 m and no significant negative excursions. Here, we present evidence of two low sea-level phases in the Maldives, Indian Ocean, based on fossil coral microatolls. Microatoll growth is constrained by low water levels and, consequently, they are robust recorders of past sea level. U–Th dating of the Maldivian corals identified lowstands at ad 234–605 and ad 1481–1807 when sea level fell to maximum depths of ?0.88 m and ?0.89 m respectively. These lowstands are synchronous with reductions in radiative forcing and sea surface temperature associated with the Late Antiquity Little Ice Age and the Little Ice Age. Our results provide high-fidelity observations of lower sea levels during these cool periods and show rates of change of up to 4.24 mm yr?1. Our data also confirm the acceleration of relative sea-level rise over the past two centuries and suggest that the current magnitude and rate of sea-level rise is not unprecedented.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – November 2019


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During November, the whole country received rainfall slightly above than is normal for the season. During last year the Southern and Northern Islands have an excess of 450 mm and 200 mm of rainfall respectively compared to the average. The Central Islands are experiencing average rainfall. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm. 

Predictions: IMD GFS the model predicts up to 20 mm of daily rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on December 4th and 5th. On the 6th and 7th, daily rainfall up to 70 mm is expected in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands.  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 100 mm for the northern and central parts next week.  

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, November 4, 2019

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – October 2019


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During October, the whole country received rainfall above than is normal for the season. The Southern and Northern Islands have an excess of 650 mm and 150 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average respectively while the Central Islands experiencing average rainfall. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the central and southern islands on November 4th and 5th. On the 6th, rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. On the 7th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mmz in the southern islands.   Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the northern and central parts next week.  


Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – September 2019


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During September, northern and central parts of the country received rainfall above than is normal for the season; and southern islands received normal rainfall. The Southern Islands have an excess of 650 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Northern and Central Islands experiencing average rainfall. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm. 

Predictions: IMD GFS the model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire country on October 7th. On the 8th, rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in the northern islands. On the 9th, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in the northern islands.  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the entire country next week.    


Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2019


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored:  During August, northern and southern parts of the country received rainfall above than is normal for the season; and central islands received below normal rainfall. The Southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Northern Islands are having a deficit of 375 mm and Central islands a deficit of 200 mm. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 0.5 0C above normal. 


Predictions:  IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the northern and central islands during September 3rd - 7th. On the 8th, rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country next week.
Total Six-Day Precipitation Forecast



Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2019


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During July, southern parts of the country received rainfall below than is normal for the season by more than 50 mm; and central and southern islands received normal rainfall. The northern islands recorded the second-highest rainfall for the period in the past six years. The Southern Islands have an excess of 500 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Northern Islands are having a deficit of 400 mm and Central islands a deficit of 100 mm. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the entire country during August 4th - 6th. On the 7th and 8th, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in the rest of the country.  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country next week.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast by IMD GFS daily



 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2019


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During July, southern parts of the country received rainfall below than is normal for the season by more than 50 mm; and central and southern islands received normal rainfall. The northern islands recorded the second-highest rainfall for the period in the past six years. The Southern Islands have an excess of 500 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Northern Islands are having a deficit of 400 mm and Central islands a deficit of 100 mm. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.


Predictions:  IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire country on July 9th. On the 10th, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the whole country. On the 11th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands. On the 12th, rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the southern islands and up to 20 mm in the central islands  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country next week.




 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI