Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During March, northern and central islands received above average rainfall while southern received climatological rainfall. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands have a deficit by 300 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfall since 2003 of 1500 mm. An increase in rainfall was observed in the entire country during the mid-weeks of March. Rainfalls received by the northern and central islands are the highest rainfalls recorded in each region during the past 6 years. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological tendency for rainfall for Maldives until June. El Nino prediction models suggest ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week although the Southern-most islands shall can receive up to 20-40 mm/day.


Northern islands received up to 300 mm of above average rainfall in March


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, March 17, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During February, the whole country received climatological rainfall. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands have a deficit by 400 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfall since 2003 of 1500 mm. An increase in rainfall was observed in the southern islands during the mid-weeks of February. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is climatological. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts average rainfall for Maldives until June. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Central islands received up to 150 mm rainfall in February.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During January, southern islands received up to 150 mm below average rainfall while some of central islands received up to 120 mm below average rainfall. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands have a deficit by 400 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfall since 2003 of 1500 mm. During the last week of January, the rainfall in northern and central islands increased. The sea surface temperature around southern Maldives is nearly neutral to up to 0.5 0C below the seasonal average. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts above average rainfall for southern islands rainfall until April. El Nino prediction models suggest of weak La Niña conditions as the Pacific SST anomaly is close to -0.5 C. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Southern islands received 180 mm below average rain in January.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, January 20, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction Highlights for Maldives – January 2017


HIGHLIGHTS


  • Southern islands received up to 20 mm of rainfall during the first two weeks of January while the Northern and Central islands remained dry. 
  • NOAA CFS long-range weather prediction model predicts up to 75 mm total rainfall for Northern islands during 19th – 24th Jan. 
  • The sea surfaces around Southern Maldives is 0.50C below the seasonal averages. The temperatures in Maldives are predicted to be slightly above average for next two months. 





 Printable Version of Images (PDF)

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: The rainfall received by the northern islands for December is the lowest rainfall received in past six years. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 400 mm cumulative rainfall over the last 365 day compared to normal years. The rainfall in the Southern Islands do not show a deficit for the last year or for December aided by heavy rainfall in the last week of December. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is up to 0.5 0C above the seasonal average with lower values to the South. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts rainfall have a tendency towards near-normal tercile and seasonal temperature to the above normal tercile for January to March of 2017. For the Pacific sea surfaces models suggest weak La Niña conditions as the SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not expect heavy rainfall in the next week.


The rainfall received by the northern islands for December is the lowest rainfall received in past six years.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI