Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During September, the whole country received above average rainfall except for the Male atoll. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 has been decreased to 6% in the Northern and to 5% in the Southern Islands. Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 100 mm; and the Southern islands by 200 mm.  
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm in the next week.     



Northern and southern islands including Malaku atoll received up to 420 mm of rainfall in September.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In October, the northern half of the country usually receives up to 200 mm rain while the southern half receives up to 250 mm rain. Wind is westerly. The entire country usually receives up to 200 mm rain in November with no change in the wind direction from October. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 and 250 mm rain respectively. Southern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
17th September 2017 Up to 10 mm in northern islands.
18th September 2017 Up to 10 mm in southern islands.
19th-20th  September 2017 No Rainfall..
21st September 2017 Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
22nd September 2017 No Rainfall.
23rd September 2017 Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
24th September 2017 Up to 10 mm in southern islands.
25th September 2017 Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
26th-30th September 2017 No Rainfall.




Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In September, northern islands and southern islands received above average rainfall up to 120 mm; and Hadhdhunmathee, Nilandhoo and Malaku atolls up to 60 mm. Male atoll received below average rainfall up to 60 mm.  The northern and southern islands including Malaku atoll received up to 420 mm of rainfall; and rest of the country up to 300 mm during this period. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State September 19, 2017:

In mid-September 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates coolish ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring September 20, 2017: 

0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 3 from 14-16 of September.






Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 20 mm of rain is expected on September 4th and 5th in the central and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands. On the 6th northern islands expected to receive up to 70 mm of rainfall and central and southern islands up to 40 mm. During 7th- 8th up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and northern islands. On the 9thup to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands. 





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