Monday, July 27, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2015


There was heavy rainfall from 10th- 18th July up to 80 mm/day rainfall across the Maldives. The rainfall this July was the highest in the past 5 years in the northern islands. Still the cumulative deficit of rainfall for the last nine months remained at 30% of expected rainfall. There is a strong El Nino in place with the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surfaces warmed up as expected. That shall last for six months and as is typical. The sea around Maldives and Sri Lanka is about 1 degree Celsius higher than the average. There is a gradient in sea surface temperatures between the warmer Arabian Sea and neutral seas near Indonesia as is typical with an Indian Ocean Dipole. The implications for Maldives varies between the Northern, Central and Southern Islands when it comes to rainfall (see separate post on this) but there shall be consistent warmer than usual temperatures for the next six months.

Observed monthly rainfall in and around the Maldives in June 2015

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI