Friday, May 5, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2017


Monitored: During April, entire country received below average rainfall. Over the last year, there has been a rainfall deficit in the Northern and Southern Islands by 20 and 15% respectively - the Northern Islands have a deficit by 300 mm; and the Southern islands by 240 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm. Rainfalls received by the northern is the lowest rainfall recorded in the region during the past 6 years. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological distribution of rainfall for Maldives until June (i.e. no signs of either higher or lower tendency ). El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.

Central islands received up to 150 mm of below average rainfall in April.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI