Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2017


Monitored: During May, entire country received above average rainfall. With the ITCZ above the Maldives, and long range disturbances from depressions in the Bay of Bengal, there were heavy rainfall events. The rainfall deficit over the last year has been reduced to 13% and 12% in the Northern and Southern Islands respectively – Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 200 mm; and the Southern islands by 220 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological distribution of rainfall for Maldives until June (i.e. no signs of either higher or lower tendency). El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.

Southern islands received up to 400 mm of rainfall and Northern and Central islands received up to 300 mm in  May.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI