Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2017

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During May, entire country received above average rainfall. With the ITCZ above the Maldives, and long range disturbances from depressions in the Bay of Bengal, there were heavy rainfall events. The rainfall deficit over the last year has been reduced to 13% and 12% in the Northern and Southern Islands respectively – Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 200 mm; and the Southern islands by 220 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 ⁰C above average.

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological distribution of rainfall for Maldives until June (i.e. no signs of either higher or lower tendency). El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.

Southern islands received up to 400 mm of rainfall and Northern and Central islands received up to 300 mm in  May.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In May, Rainfall usually is up to 200 mm in the entire country. The wind direction is westerly and the speed is higher than in April. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
22nd May 2017	Up to 50 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands.
23rd May 2017	Up to 20 mm in northern islands and up to 10 mm in central islands.
24th May 2017	Up to 50 mm in central and southern islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands.
25th May 2017	Up to 50 mm in northern and central islands and up to 30 mm in southern islands.
26th-27th May 2017	Up to 30 mm in northern islands and up to 10 mm in central islands.
28th May 2017	Up to 20 mm in northern and southern islands.
29th May 2017	Up to 30 mm in southern islands.
30th May 2017	Up to 30 mm in northern and central islands.
31st May 2017	Up to 120 mm in northern islands and up to 30 mm in southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In May, Northern and Central islands received up to 180 mm of above average rainfall; and Southern islands up to 120 mm. The Southern islands received up to 400 mm; and Northern and Central islands received up to 300 mm of rainfall during this period.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State May 18, 2017:

By mid-May 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with above-average SSTs present in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and near-average SSTs across the central and east-central part of the basin. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates increasing chances of El Niño into the summer and fall of 2017. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring May 24, 2017: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was active in Phase 1 from 8-13th of May and active in Phase 2 on May 26 and 27 becoming progressively more active, which tends to enhance rainfall throughout Maldives. It was also active in phase 3 from May 28-30 which impacts Northern Islands.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 20 mm of rain is expected on June 6th in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands. During 7th- 10th up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands. On the 11th up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to June, the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month average temperature has a 70% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile in southern islands and 50% likelihood for central and northern islands during these 3 months.