Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During June, entire country received below average rainfall. The rainfall deficit over the last year has been reduced to 10% and 11% in the Northern and Southern Islands respectively – Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 150 mm; and the Southern islands by 200 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Entire country received up to 90 mm of below average rainfall in June


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually westerly but with low speeds. In July the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains up to 200 mm. The wind direction and speed is similar to previous months.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
19th-21st June 2017 No Rainfall.
22nd June 2017 Up to 10 mm in southern islands.
23rd June 2017 Up to 20 mm in southern islands and up to 10 mm in central islands.
24th June 2017 No Rainfall.
25th June 2017 Up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
26th June 2017 Up to 20 mm in central islands.
27th June 2017 Up to 10 mm in central and southern islands.
28th-29th June 2017 No Rainfall.
30th June 2017 Up to 50 mm in southern islands and up to 10 mm in central islands.




Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In June, entire country received up to 90 mm of below average rainfall. The Northern islands received up to 180 mm; and Southern and Central islands received up to 100 mm of rainfall during this period.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 15, 2017:

In mid-June 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with SSTs not far from the El Niño threshold in the east-central tropical Pacific but the atmosphere maintaining ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition during summer, with chances for El Niño development rising to about 40-45% during fall and early winter. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring June 28, 2017: 

0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was active in Phase 1 from 11-23rd of June and active in Phase 2 on 27-30th which tends to enhance rainfall throughout Maldives.




Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 20 mm of rain is expected on July 11th in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands. During 12th- 14th up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands. During 15th- 17th up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern and central islands.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to June, the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month average temperature has a 70% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile in southern islands and 50% likelihood for central and northern islands during these 3 months.



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