Friday, August 11, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During July, entire country except Addu Atoll received below average rainfall. The rainfall deficit over the last year has been increased to 16% in the Northern and remained at 11% in the Southern Islands. Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 250 mm; and the Southern islands by 200 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.   



Entire country received below average rainfall except for Addu atoll in July.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In August islands in the northern half of the country, receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November, the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
19th July 2017 No Rainfall.
20th July 2017 Up to 20 mm in northern islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands.
21st July 2017 Up to 5 mm in southern islands.
22nd-26th July 2017 No Rainfall.
27th July 2017 Up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands.
28th July 2017 Up to 50 mm in northern and central islands and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
29th-30th July 2017 No Rainfall.
31st July 2017 Up to 10 mm of rainfall in central islands.
1st August 2017 Up to 10 mm of rainfall in northern islands.




Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In July, northern and central islands received up to 120 mm of below average rainfall; and southern islands up to 90 mm. The entire country received up to 180 mm of rainfall during this period. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State July 19, 2017:

In mid-July 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with SSTs near the El Niño threshold in the east-central tropical Pacific but the atmosphere maintaining ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition during summer through fall and into winter with chances for El Niño development at about 35-40%. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring June 28, 2017: 

0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from 5-9 of July and in Phase 3 on 14-18. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.





Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 40 mm of rain is expected on August 9th in the southern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands. On the 10th southern and central islands expected to receive up to 20 mm of rainfall and northern islands up to 10 mm. During 10th- 13th up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country. During 14th- 15th up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands. 



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for April to June, the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month average temperature has a 70% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile in southern islands and 50% likelihood for central and northern islands during these 3 months.



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