Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

After a relatively dry January, February and March some rainfall was observed in the first two weeks of April. This is the highest observed rainfall this year in the entire country. This rainfall coincided with the atmospheric phenomenon known as Madden Julian Oscillation being strong and in phase 3 (and over the Indian Ocean) which is usually associated with higher rainfall over Maldives. But as the MJO transited to phase 5 over the Pacific in the previous week (11 th onwards) was once again dry. The NOAA CFS long range weather prediction models predict dry conditions in the next week as well. Usually in April relatively high rainfall can be observed (about 200 mm- 400 mm monthly). Moderate El Nino conditions have set in and as is typical there is warmer than usual seas around the Maldives. The rainfall in a typical El Nino episode over Maldives is lower than usual in Northern and Central Maldives until mid-September.


Below average rainfall observed in the entire country in March 2015

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, March 23, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

Below average rainfall was observed in January 2015 in Maldives and a continuation of this dry condition was observed in February and early March 2015 as well. Significant amount of rainfall is not predicted in the next few days by NOAA/ CFS models. The rainfall deficit in Maldives has increased to about 22- 33% of what is typical during the past 365 days. IRI predicts an El Nino by mid-2015.


Southern islands continue to receive below average rainfall

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, February 23, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

A continuation of dry weather conditions from the previous month was observed throughout January in the Northern and Central Maldives. The Southern Islands got a significant amount of rainfall on the 12 -14 th of January. The seas to the Southern islands showed a warming which was 0.5C above what is usual. Significant amounts of rainfall are not expected during the next few days as well. On a seasonal time scale, the next three months are expected to bring the usual distribution of rainfall totals although the Southern islands in particular and Central Islands as well shall tend towards warmer temperatures than usual.


Very dry conditions were observed in and around Maldives during January 2015

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, February 6, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

During December below average rainfall was observed throughout Maldives contributing to a further increase in the rainfall deficit which had persisted throughout the previous year. Despite having relatively higher rainfall towards the end of the year 2014, the rainfall deficit in southern islands too has reached to a magnitude of about 15% of expected rainfall during the year. Most of ENSO prediction models indicate a weak El Nino condition during January to March.

Rainfall Anomaly over Maldives in December 2014. Notice that below average rainfall was observed in the entire country which is shown in brown.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2014

HIGHLIGHTS

Above average rainfall was observed in southern islands of Maldives where up to 190 mm rainfall was observed at the end of November and this is the highest rainfall observed in this year in any part of the country. The rest of the country received below average rainfall during November. Very heavy rainfall is expected in the sea west of Maldives in the next few days. Most of ENSO prediction models indicate a weak El Nino condition during December to February.

Rainfall Anomaly over Maldives in November 2014. Areas in green received above average rainfall while areas in brown received below average rainfall.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, December 1, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2014

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Highlights

Up to 100 mm rainfall was observed in Central to Northern islands of Maldives in the first three weeks of November 2014. Extremely heavy rainfall is expected to continue during the next week in the same region as well as in the north-eastern sea of The Maldives. Despite this heavy rainfall, the precipitation received has not been enough to shrink the rainfall deficit persisted for several months.  





Image: Rainfall anomaly continues to grow in Northern islands of Maldives. The same is observed throughout the country






Friday, October 24, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2014

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Highlights

Above average rainfall was observed in northern and southern islands of Maldives in September 2014. In central islands, below average rainfall was observed despite having up to 300 mm rainfall during the month. The rainfall deficit persists in the entire country even though around 300 mm of rainfall was observed in September and the first two weeks of October.  





Image: Rainfall anomaly continues to grow in Northern islands of Maldives. The same is observed throughout the country