Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2013

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Highlights

The cumulative rainfall of 20-40% deficit in in the past 365 days for Northern and Central Maldives highlights the drought conditions in the last two months, Southern Maldives too shows a deficit after having near normal rainfall in the previous 10 months. Although the El Nino/La Nina state in the Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has been near-neutral the warm Central Indian Ocean sea surfaces are driving climate anomalies. In particular the seas around Northern and Southern are warmer than normally by up to 0.5 degrees C. Seasonal rainfall predictions for the next season (March-April-May) and following season (June-July-August) do not show shifts in rainfall tendencies, there is a higher likelihood of warmer temperatures across the Maldives.  

Image: SST Anomaly (Top) and Rainfall Deficit in South Maldives (Bottom)

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2013

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Highlights

Drought conditions persist all over Maldives. South and central islands received relatively high rainfall compared to the previous months, but Northern islands received extremely less rainfall. Anomalous warm sea surface temperature is observed in the seas around Maldives. ENSO conditions remain in the neutral ENSO condition.  

Image: Observed rainfall in March 2013

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2013

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Highlights

As expected the rainfall was low for January particularly in the Northern Islands. Dry months are to follow. The cumulative deficit for the 365 days from the average ending in mid-February is highest in the Northern Islands, while being in deficit to some extent in the Central Islands but about normal in the Southern Islands.  

Image: Observed rainfall in December (top) and January (bottom)

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2013

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Highlights

December 2012 has been a dry month for all of Maldives. The rainfall deficit compared to the last 8 year’s average has been growing for all Northern, Central and Southern islands of Maldives. Dry conditions are expected to be sustained during January. There is a higher than average chance of above normal precipitation in Central Maldives from February to April. The chances of above normal temperature, when the January to March period is taken in aggregate, is higher than normal throughout Maldives particularly in the Central Region.  

Image: Rainfall deficit (in brown) in Central Maldives

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2012

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Highlights

Southern Maldivian islands which were considerably wet in September and October received only a little rainfall in November. Northern and Central islands have a rainfall deficit if the last 365 days are considered even though these islands received significant rainfall during October. Heavy rains are forecast for the week of 16-21. The warm Indian Ocean continues to persist around Maldives and the implications include warmer than average temperatures. There is tendency to drier climate in the next three months in the Southern Islands.  

Image: Rainfall observed in Southern Maldives. A significant deficit in rainfall is evident in November

 Image: Extremely heavy rainfall is predicted during 16th- 21st of December

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2012

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Highlights

Rainfall in Southern Maldives was higher than usual and as a result the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days was as expected from the 2003-2011 averages. The 365 day cumulative rainfall for both Central and Northern Maldives is below expected- the drought persists although rainfall was about average during the last two months as expected during an El Nino. El Nino conditions are beginning to weaken – so the usual increase in rainfall over Northern and Central Malidves in December may be reduced. The anomalously high sea surface temperatures near Maldives shall lead to warmer temperatures over the Malidves during the next three months and associated impacts on fisheries and other sectors.  

Image: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, 4-10 of November 2012

 Image: Cumulative precipitation in Southern Maldives compared to the average of 2003-2011. Notice that surplus rainfall compared to the average is observed for the first time in last 365 days in this region

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2012

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Highlights

After a wet August, rainfall continues to decrease in the first half of October in North and Central islands of Maldives and drought conditions continue to persist. In contrast, the Southern islands received highest recorded rainfall in September for the last 5 years. For the October-December season, wetter conditions are predicted for central Maldives and near-normal conditions are predicted for the southern regions. Warmer than average conditions driven by the warm Arabian Sea surface conditions shall be felt throughout the Maldives.  

Image: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, 7-13 of October 2012

 Image: Rainfall in Southern Maldives (Black) compared to the last five years.