Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During August, northern and central islands received below average rainfall; and many of the southern islands received average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year has been decreased to 13% in the Northern and to 5% in the Central Islands. Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 200 mm; and the Central islands by 50 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. 
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate heavy rainfall in the northern islands in the next week.     



The Northern and Southern islands received up to 300 mm rainfall and Central islands up to 150 mm in  August.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, August 11, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During July, entire country except Addu Atoll received below average rainfall. The rainfall deficit over the last year has been increased to 16% in the Northern and remained at 11% in the Southern Islands. Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 250 mm; and the Southern islands by 200 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.   



Entire country received below average rainfall except for Addu atoll in July.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During June, entire country received below average rainfall. The rainfall deficit over the last year has been reduced to 10% and 11% in the Northern and Southern Islands respectively – Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 150 mm; and the Southern islands by 200 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Entire country received up to 90 mm of below average rainfall in June


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During May, entire country received above average rainfall. With the ITCZ above the Maldives, and long range disturbances from depressions in the Bay of Bengal, there were heavy rainfall events. The rainfall deficit over the last year has been reduced to 13% and 12% in the Northern and Southern Islands respectively – Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 200 mm; and the Southern islands by 220 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological distribution of rainfall for Maldives until June (i.e. no signs of either higher or lower tendency). El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Southern islands received up to 400 mm of rainfall and Northern and Central islands received up to 300 mm in  May.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, May 5, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During April, entire country received below average rainfall. Over the last year, there has been a rainfall deficit in the Northern and Southern Islands by 20 and 15% respectively - the Northern Islands have a deficit by 300 mm; and the Southern islands by 240 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm. Rainfalls received by the northern is the lowest rainfall recorded in the region during the past 6 years. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological distribution of rainfall for Maldives until June (i.e. no signs of either higher or lower tendency ). El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Central islands received up to 150 mm of below average rainfall in April.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During March, northern and central islands received above average rainfall while southern received climatological rainfall. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands have a deficit by 300 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfall since 2003 of 1500 mm. An increase in rainfall was observed in the entire country during the mid-weeks of March. Rainfalls received by the northern and central islands are the highest rainfalls recorded in each region during the past 6 years. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological tendency for rainfall for Maldives until June. El Nino prediction models suggest ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week although the Southern-most islands shall can receive up to 20-40 mm/day.


Northern islands received up to 300 mm of above average rainfall in March


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, March 17, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During February, the whole country received climatological rainfall. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands have a deficit by 400 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfall since 2003 of 1500 mm. An increase in rainfall was observed in the southern islands during the mid-weeks of February. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is climatological. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts average rainfall for Maldives until June. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Central islands received up to 150 mm rainfall in February.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI