Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During November, the Northern islands received below average rainfall and Central and Southern islands received above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 has been increased to 10% in the Northern and decreased to 6% in the Central Islands. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 160 mm; and the Southern islands by 100 mm.  
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 130 mm of rainfall in the central islands on the 6th and up to 70 mm in the southern islands during 7-9. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 100 mm in southern islands next week.       



Central and Southern islands received above average rainfall in November

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During October, the whole country received below average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 has been increased to 9% in the Northern and to 10% in the Southern and Central Islands. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 200 mm; and the Southern islands by 180 mm.  
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm in southern islands this next week.     



Entire country received below average rainfall in October

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During September, the whole country received above average rainfall except for the Male atoll. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 has been decreased to 6% in the Northern and to 5% in the Southern Islands. Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 100 mm; and the Southern islands by 200 mm.  
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm in the next week.     



Northern and southern islands including Malaku atoll received up to 420 mm of rainfall in September.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During August, northern and central islands received below average rainfall; and many of the southern islands received average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year has been decreased to 13% in the Northern and to 5% in the Central Islands. Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 200 mm; and the Central islands by 50 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. 
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate heavy rainfall in the northern islands in the next week.     



The Northern and Southern islands received up to 300 mm rainfall and Central islands up to 150 mm in  August.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, August 11, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During July, entire country except Addu Atoll received below average rainfall. The rainfall deficit over the last year has been increased to 16% in the Northern and remained at 11% in the Southern Islands. Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 250 mm; and the Southern islands by 200 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.   



Entire country received below average rainfall except for Addu atoll in July.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During June, entire country received below average rainfall. The rainfall deficit over the last year has been reduced to 10% and 11% in the Northern and Southern Islands respectively – Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 150 mm; and the Southern islands by 200 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Entire country received up to 90 mm of below average rainfall in June


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During May, entire country received above average rainfall. With the ITCZ above the Maldives, and long range disturbances from depressions in the Bay of Bengal, there were heavy rainfall events. The rainfall deficit over the last year has been reduced to 13% and 12% in the Northern and Southern Islands respectively – Still the Northern Islands have a deficit by 200 mm; and the Southern islands by 220 mm compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 of 1500 mm in the Northern and 1800 mm in Southern islands. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological distribution of rainfall for Maldives until June (i.e. no signs of either higher or lower tendency). El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate heavy rainfall in the next week.


Southern islands received up to 400 mm of rainfall and Northern and Central islands received up to 300 mm in  May.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI