Thursday, April 28, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Northern and central islands did not receive any rainfall during March 2016, but southern islands received around 100 mm rain during this month. In the first weeks of April, around 20 mm rainfall was seen for the first time this year in northern island. Central and southern islands also received 80- 100 mm rainfall, which is higher compared to previous months, in April. Rainfall in May is usually higher than in April for all of Maldives. With the weakening of El Niño conditions, higher rainfall can be expected next month. The global climate models are predicting climatological rainfall but warmer than climatological temperatures across Maldives.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly

By Justin Gillis  March 30, 2016

A view from a NASA airplane of large icebergs that have broken from the calving side of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica in November 2014. A disaster scenario of West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration could occur much sooner than previously thought, new research suggests.
Credit  Image: Jim Yungel/NASA

For half a century, climate scientists have seen the West Antarctic ice sheet, a remnant of the last ice age, as a sword of Damocles hanging over human civilization.

The great ice sheet, larger than Mexico, is thought to be potentially vulnerable to disintegration from a relatively small amount of global warming, and capable of raising the sea level by 12 feet or more should it break up. But researchers long assumed the worst effects would take hundreds — if not thousands — of years to occur.

Now, new research suggests the disaster scenario could play out much sooner.

Continued high emissions of heat-trapping gases could launch a disintegration of the ice sheet within decades, according to a study published Wednesday, heaving enough water into the ocean to raise the sea level as much as three feet by the end of this century.

With ice melting in other regions, too, the total rise of the sea could reach five or six feet by 2100, the researchers found. That is roughly twice the increase reported as a plausible worst-case scenario by a United Nations panel just three years ago, and so high it would likely provoke a profound crisis within the lifetimes of children being born today.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

The southern islands were quite wet during February and first 3 weeks of March. Northern islands did not receive any rainfall during this period while central islands received moderate rainfall. The seven-day forecasts suggest that there shall be no rainfall in the next few days in any island. There is an El Nino that is ongoing which may last at least a few more months. The most direct impact is the warmer seasonal temperatures.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

High rainfall compared to previous five Januaries was observed in January 2016 in southern and central islands. Southern and central islands received up to 100 and 120 mm rainfall in the final week of January 2016. February 2016 up to now has been dry compared to January and according to the IRI CFS models shall remain dry in the next few days as well. There shall be a continuation of El Nino conditions in March which shall contribute to the usual relatively dry weather during March for Central and particularly Northern Islands. The El Nino conditions and the warmer Indian Ocean conditions are leading to warmer conditions across the Maldives for the next 3 months.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Jan 2016. Northern most atolls received below average rainfall while southern most atolls received above average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

The rainfall throughout the Maldives (except the Northern) during December 2015 was much lower than in previous months. In early December a peak in rainfall was observed in northern islands. This was the highest rainfall observed in the Maldives region in 2015 over any 10 day period. Central and southern islands also received low amounts of rainfall during December. In January 2016 rainfall was low throughout the country except for very few high rainfall events in the southern islands. Seasonal climate models predict rainfall to have a drier tendency during February to April 2016 for the Central Islands and no clear tendencies for the Northern and Southern Islands. Temperature is predicted to be warmer than seasonal averages till April in all the islands with higher confidence. Such a dry and warm tendency is expected during El Nino in the Central islands . A continuation of El Niño conditions is also predicted for these 3 months.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Dec 2015. The entire country received below average rainfall while northern most atolls received above average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

The rainfall throughout the Maldives (except the Northern) during December 2015 was much lower than in previous months. In early December a peak in rainfall was observed in northern islands. This was the highest rainfall observe in the Maldives region in 2015 over any 10 day period. Central and southern islands also received low amounts of rainfall during December. Seasonal climate models predict rainfall to be climatological during January to March 2016. A continuation of El Niño conditions is also predicted for these 3 months. In January, during El Nino conditions, the rainfall in southern islands is usually enhanced. But there is a slight drop in rainfall, in northern or central islands due to El Niño conditions.
Rainfall Deficit in southern Maldives. 



 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, November 27, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

Rainfall in the Maldives continued to follow an increasing trend in October 2015. Heavy rainfall was observed throughout the country during late October to early November period. Southern islands received extremely heavy rainfall which resulted in floods in many southern atolls. The deficit in rainfall is only seen in northern islands while central and southern islands have received above average rainfall in the past year. Rainfall in the next 3 months shall have an above average tendency in the Northern and Central regions. Temperatures shall be warmer than the seasonal average throughout the country.

Rainfall in Southern Maldives in the last 6 years with this year's rainfall as the solid black line. A significant increase in rainfall was observed during late October - early November 2015 which caused floods in many southern atolls.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI