Friday, July 18, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2014

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Highlights

Lower than average rainfall conditions were observed in entire Maldives in the month of June. The cumulative deficit of rainfall over the last 12 months has increased to an amount around 700 mm in Northern and Central islands. Southern islands continues to show a much smaller rainfall deficit over the last year. The temperatures are predicted to be warmer than expected in the next three months and the rainfall below normal in the Southern islands.  





Image: Rainfall Anomaly in May 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades. This image shows dry conditions observed in the Northern islands and wet conditions in the southern islands.






Monday, June 23, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2014

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Highlights

Above average rainfall was observed during the month of May in Central to Southern islands in Maldives. This rainfall condition diminished during the first two weeks of June. The drought in the Northern Islands persisted during the last month. The entire country shows a rainfall deficit during this year compared to what was observed during past eight years. Three is a 60% probability of El Nino conditions emerging starting from the Pacific Ocean in the next months. If it emerges then, greater tendency to drier than average is expected in the Northern and Central Islands until September. Models however are suggesting that rainfall from July to August shall be climatological while temperature shall be biased to warmer conditions In the Southern Islands and cooler than average in the Northern islands.  





Image: Rainfall Anomaly in May 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades. This image shows dry conditions observed in the Northern islands and wet conditions in the southern islands.






Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Haa Alif Dhidhoo hit by ‘Udha’ waves

By Ahmed Rilwan

Source: http://minivannews.com/environment/haa-alif-dhidhoo-hit-by-udha-waves-86757





Dhidhoo, the capital of Haa Alif atoll is being flooded by ‘Udha’ swell waves coming in from the eroded southern side of the island, the island council has said today.
Deputy President of the council Jauhari Ali today said the waves are coming from three eroding areas, one of which is populated densely – with the nearest houses just seven feet from reach of these swells.

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2014

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Highlights

Dryer than average conditions were observed in all of Maldives during the month of April. Northern and Central Maldivian islands continue to show a cumulative rainfall deficit while Southern islands continue to receive slightly surplus rainfall when compared to monthly averages. Significant rainfall during April was observed only in the Southern islands in early April. ENSO conditions have changed from cooler than -neutral sea surfaces in the Eastern Tropical Pacific to warm-neutral indicating greater likelihood of El Nino in the coming months. Towards the end of April significant rainfall was observed across the Maldives and is expected to continue to the first two weeks of May.  





Image: Rainfall Anomaly in April 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades. This image shows dry conditions observed throughout the month






Thursday, April 10, 2014

The Maldives is the extreme test case for climate change action

By Damian Carrington 

Like the azure ocean waters, the challenge of global warming is clear in the archipelago. But can the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's new report crystallise action?

Paradox in paradise: the Maldives economy runs on the natural beauty that development, climate change and other environmental problems threaten. Photograph: Sakis Papadopoulos

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2014

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Highlights

Seas immediately around Maldives do not show a surface temperature anomaly more than 0.5oC from the seasonal average. While the Rainfall during March over the Northern islands is the highest in the last five last five years, there has been an overall drought when the last six months are considered. Such a drought pattern prevailed in the 6 month period of over the Central islands as well. However, the southern Islands continued to have a wetter than average rainfall over the last season. The predictions from weekly to seasonal scales do not show much departures from climatology.  





Image: Rainfall Anomaly in March 2014. Green areas show above average rainfall and brown areas show below average rainfall. Higher magnitudes are shown in darker shades.






Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2014

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Highlights

The rainfall over the Northern and Central Island since February 2013 has been up to 35% lower than normal. The rainfall over the Southern Islands were actually about 10-20% higher than normal. The major rainfall deficits commenced in September 2013. The cause of these deficits is not explained by the usual factors such as El Nino.  





Image: Sea Surface Temperature- 12 February 2014