Monday, August 31, 2020

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – August 2020


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During August, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During the last 365 days, Northern islands: Excess of 400 mm from 1300 mm cumulative precipitation average.

Central islands: Excess of 400 mm from 1700 mm cumulative precipitation average

Southern islands: Excess of 350 mm from 1800 mm cumulative precipitation average.

The sea surface temperature around the Maldives is 10 C above average. 


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in southern, central and northern islands on 29th August; up to 40 mm of rainfall in southern and northern island on 30th August; up to 40 mm of rainfall in northern islands on 31st August, up to 40 mm of rainfall in northern, central and southern islands during 1st -2nd September. 

 



Printable Version of the Report Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – April 2020


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During March, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During last year the northern and southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm and the central Islands have an excess of 250 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1.5 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts rainfall up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands during 6th-7th April. From 8th-10th, daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central islands  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week
 

Printable Version of the Report Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – March 2020


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During February, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During last year the northern and southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm and the central Islands have an excess of 350 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1.5 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the entire country during 11th-13th March. On the 14th, up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands.  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.  
 

Printable Version of the Report Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, February 17, 2020

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – December 2019


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During December, the northern islands received rainfall slightly above than is normal for the season. During last year the northern and central Islands have an excess of 250 mm and the southern Islands have an excess of 600 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around The Maldives was 0.5 0C above normal. 

Predictions: MD GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of daily in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands on January 4th. On the 5th and 6th, daily rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the southern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the whole country next week.
 


Printable Version of the Report Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, February 10, 2020

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – January 2020


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During January, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During last year the northern and southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm and the central Islands have an excess of 300 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.

Predictions: IMD GFS the model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire country on February 3rd. On the 4th, up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; up to 10 mm in central and southern islands. On the 5th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the whole country. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.  


Printable Version of the Report Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, December 27, 2019

‘Worrying’ rise in sea-levels in Indian Ocean basin: Study (December 25, 2019)

Click here to view the original article: ‘Worrying’ rise in sea-levels in the Indian Ocean basin

‘Worrying’ rise in sea-levels in the Indian Ocean basin: Study

Sea-level reconstructions over the past two millennia provide a pre-industrial context to assess whether the magnitude and rate of modern sea-level change is unprecedented, the researchers said.


Toronto, Dec 24, 2019, PTI: The sea levels in the central Indian Ocean have risen by close to a meter in the last two centuries, according to a study. The research, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, provides new details about sea levels in the past.

"We know that certain types of fossil corals act as important recorders of past sea levels" said Professor Paul Kench from Simon Fraser University in Canada.

"By measuring the ages and the depths of these fossil corals, we are identifying that there have been periods several hundred years ago that the sea level has been much lower than we thought in parts of the Indian Ocean," Kench said.

Sea-level reconstructions over the past two millennia provide a pre-industrial context to assess whether the magnitude and rate of modern sea-level change is unprecedented, the researchers said. Understanding where sea levels have been historically, and what happens as they rise, will provide greater insights into how coral reef systems and islands may be able to respond to the changes in sea levels in the future, they said.

The ongoing study, which began in 2017, underscores the serious threat posed to coastal cities and communities in the region, the researchers said. It also suggests that if such acceleration continues over the next century, sea levels in the Indian Ocean will have risen to their highest level ever in recorded history, they said.

The study titled ‘Climate-forced sea-level lowstands in the Indian Ocean during the last two millennia,’ was conducted by Prof Kench, Roger F. McLean, Susan D. Owen, Emma Ryan, Kyle M Morgan, Lin Ke, Xianfeng Wang and Keven Roy.

The researchers in their abstract of the final report said: Sea-level reconstructions over the past two millennia provide a pre-industrial context to assess whether the magnitude and rate of modern sea-level change is unprecedented. Sea-level records from the Indian Ocean over the past 2,000 years are sparse, while records from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans show variations less than 0.25 m and no significant negative excursions. Here, we present evidence of two low sea-level phases in the Maldives, Indian Ocean, based on fossil coral microatolls. Microatoll growth is constrained by low water levels and, consequently, they are robust recorders of past sea level. U–Th dating of the Maldivian corals identified lowstands at ad 234–605 and ad 1481–1807 when sea level fell to maximum depths of ?0.88 m and ?0.89 m respectively. These lowstands are synchronous with reductions in radiative forcing and sea surface temperature associated with the Late Antiquity Little Ice Age and the Little Ice Age. Our results provide high-fidelity observations of lower sea levels during these cool periods and show rates of change of up to 4.24 mm yr?1. Our data also confirm the acceleration of relative sea-level rise over the past two centuries and suggest that the current magnitude and rate of sea-level rise is not unprecedented.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – November 2019


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During November, the whole country received rainfall slightly above than is normal for the season. During last year the Southern and Northern Islands have an excess of 450 mm and 200 mm of rainfall respectively compared to the average. The Central Islands are experiencing average rainfall. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm. 

Predictions: IMD GFS the model predicts up to 20 mm of daily rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on December 4th and 5th. On the 6th and 7th, daily rainfall up to 70 mm is expected in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands.  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 100 mm for the northern and central parts next week.  

Printable Version of the Report Part 1 (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI