Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: The rainfall received by the northern islands for December is the lowest rainfall received in past six years. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 400 mm cumulative rainfall over the last 365 day compared to normal years. The rainfall in the Southern Islands do not show a deficit for the last year or for December aided by heavy rainfall in the last week of December. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is up to 0.5 0C above the seasonal average with lower values to the South. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts rainfall have a tendency towards near-normal tercile and seasonal temperature to the above normal tercile for January to March of 2017. For the Pacific sea surfaces models suggest weak La Niña conditions as the SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not expect heavy rainfall in the next week.


The rainfall received by the northern islands for December is the lowest rainfall received in past six years.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, December 16, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction Highlights for Maldives – December 2016


HIGHLIGHTS


  • Central and Southern islands received up to 60 mm of rainfall during the first two weeks of December while the Northern islands remained mostly dry. When the cumulative rainfall over the last 365 days is considered, the Northern Islands are still under deficit by 200 mm for the last 3 months while there is a slight excess. 
  • NOAA CFS long-range weather prediction model predicts up to 50 mm total rainfall for Southern islands and less than 50 mm for Kolhumadulu, Haddhunmathi, Mulaku and Nilandhe atolls during 15th – 20th Dec. The NOAA GFS model predicts rainfall up to 20 mm for Southern Maldives. For the Northern and Central Islands, up to 10 mm of rainfall is predicted in the coming week. 
  • The sea surfaces around the Maldives is near the seasonal averages. A mild La Nina has onset in November 2016, but the temperatures in Maldives are predicted to be slightly above average for next two months. 





 Printable Version of Images (PDF)

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In November, southern islands received up to 120 mm above average rainfall while some of northern and central islands received up to 90 mm below average rainfall. During the last week of November, an increase in rainfall throughout the country was visible. The sea surface temperature around southern and central Maldives is up to 0.50C above the seasonal average. In the northern islands, 15% decrease in cumulative rainfall for this year thus far is observed compared to the average cumulative rainfall since 2003. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological rainfall until the end of 2016. Weak La Niña conditions have set in - the Pacific SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. iIn the next week, Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate extreme rainfall but heavy rainfall is expected in some places.

Northern islands received up to 120 mm rainfall in November

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, November 7, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In October, central islands received up to 120 mm above average rainfall while northern and southern islands received up to 120 mm below average rainfall. Up to 180 mm rainfall received by the central islands is the highest rainfall received in past six years in this region for this period. During the last week of October a decrease in rainfall throughout the country was visible. The sea surface temperature around Maldives and Sri Lanka is up to 0.50C above the seasonal average. 
Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts 50% chance of having below average rainfall until the end of 2016. Some El Nino prediction models suggest of weak La Niña conditions as the Pacific SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not expect heavy rainfall in the next week.
Central islands received up to 180 mm rainfall in October


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: Up to 250 mm and 200 mm rainfall was received by central and southern islands respectively at the beginning of September 2016. Thereafter dry conditions were seen throughout the Maldives. No rainfall was seen in any part of the country after the 19th of September. The cumulative rainfall of the past 365 days remains above average due to previous high rainfalls. The sea surface temperature around Maldives and Sri Lanka is up to 10C below the seasonal average. Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts 50% chance of having below average rainfall until the end of 2016. Some El Nino prediction models suggest of weak La Niña conditions as the Pacific SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not expect heavy rainfall in the next week.
Central islands received more than 200 mm rainfall in August


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

In July, northern and central islands received up to 200 mm above average rainfall while southern islands received up to 100 mm below average rainfall. The amount of rainfall received by northern and central islands is the highest amount received in past six years in these regions. Since the last week of July a decrease in rainfall throughout the country was visible and the first week of August was mostly dry. Heavy rainfall was received by central islands in late August. During August, the sea and land temperatures remained warmer than climatological. The wind speeds were high due to the SW Monsoon.
Northern islands received up to 200 mm rainfall in July



 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, August 12, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

The entire country received up to 200 mm less than average rainfall in June 2016. In July, northern and central islands received up to 200 mm above average rainfall while southern islands received up to 100 mm below average rainfall. The amount of rainfall received by northern and central islands is the highest amount received in past six years in these regions. Since the last week of July a decrease in rainfall throughout the country was visible and the first week of August was mostly dry. Dry conditions shall prevail in the second week of August as well. ENSO models predict likely development of La Niña conditions during August or September.


Rainfall Anomaly in June 2016. The Entire country received below average rainfall

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI