Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction Highlights for Maldives – July 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Heavy rainfall was observed throughout the country during the first week of July with Central and Southern islands receiving rainfall up to 40 mm. During the second week of July the rainfall decreased gradually with only Central islands receiving light rainfalls. IRI CFS model predicts up to 50 mm total rainfall for Northern islands and less than 50 mm for Central islands during 11th – 16th July. GFS (T574) model predicts rainfall up to 10 mm for entire Maldives and a gradual increase in rainfall for Northern islands up to 40 mm in the coming week.




 Printable Version of Images (PDF)

Friday, July 1, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Heavy rainfall was seen in the entire Maldives in May 2016 and the rainfall gradually decreased during the first three weeks of June. In northern and central islands, rainfall ceased by mid-June and in southern islands, rainfall ceased by early June and increased until mid-June up to 60 mm. NOAA CFS model does not predict heavy rainfall in the next few days in any part of the Maldives. The IRI predicts La Niña conditions by late June which shall give a drier tendency to rainfall in central and south central regions. In Northern and southernmost island rainfall shall have a wetter tendency. The sea around the Maldives show a much reduced level of warming.
Rainfall in the southern islands of the Maldives in the last 6 years.



 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Experimental Hydro Meteorological Highlights for the Maldives- June 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

Up to 20 mm rainfall was seen in the Northern islands of the Maldives while the rest of the country remained dry during 29th May- 12 June 2016. IRI CFS model predicts up to 50 mm total rain in during 13th- 18th June in northern and central islands. Heavy rainfall is not expected in any part of the country during this period. 

 Monitoring & Prediction Maps (PDF)

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Can Maldives reefs recover from El Nino?

Original Article:Link
 by Hassan Moosa

The reef of Villingili Island, just a few minutes away from Malé, has suffered damage from reclamation, dredging and harbor construction. It took another hit this year when warmer ocean temperatures, caused by the El Nino, killed a majority of its coral. On a recent dive, I found a graveyard on the island’s reef slope. A slimy layer of brown green algae covered the dead corals, while the few that still held out were bleached white. Some had startling spots of purple and pink, indicating a former more colorful appearance.

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Extraordinary Rainfall close to 60 mm/day was observed in and around the Maldives which caused flooding in many islands. The highest average daily rainfall is typically 7 mm/day. The sea around the Maldives also had rainfall excess of 100 mm/day. This high rainfall ceased on the 20th and no heavy rainfall was seen in the Maldives since that day. The rainfall observed in the first weeks of May is the highest rainfall received by Northern and Southern islands this year. The first four months had been dry in the Northern Maldives and therefore this rain helped to lessen the cumulative rainfall deficit in this region since last December, Global weather model prediction does not expect any extreme rainfall in the remaining days of this month. The Sea surface around the Maldives and Sri Lanka has become cooler and its Only 0.5 0C above average This had risen up to 1 0C in the previous months while the El Niño was strong. El Nino is now moderate and is expected to become neutral by the end of this month.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Northern and central islands did not receive any rainfall during March 2016, but southern islands received around 100 mm rain during this month. In the first weeks of April, around 20 mm rainfall was seen for the first time this year in northern island. Central and southern islands also received 80- 100 mm rainfall, which is higher compared to previous months, in April. Rainfall in May is usually higher than in April for all of Maldives. With the weakening of El Niño conditions, higher rainfall can be expected next month. The global climate models are predicting climatological rainfall but warmer than climatological temperatures across Maldives.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly

By Justin Gillis  March 30, 2016

A view from a NASA airplane of large icebergs that have broken from the calving side of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica in November 2014. A disaster scenario of West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration could occur much sooner than previously thought, new research suggests.
Credit  Image: Jim Yungel/NASA

For half a century, climate scientists have seen the West Antarctic ice sheet, a remnant of the last ice age, as a sword of Damocles hanging over human civilization.

The great ice sheet, larger than Mexico, is thought to be potentially vulnerable to disintegration from a relatively small amount of global warming, and capable of raising the sea level by 12 feet or more should it break up. But researchers long assumed the worst effects would take hundreds — if not thousands — of years to occur.

Now, new research suggests the disaster scenario could play out much sooner.

Continued high emissions of heat-trapping gases could launch a disintegration of the ice sheet within decades, according to a study published Wednesday, heaving enough water into the ocean to raise the sea level as much as three feet by the end of this century.

With ice melting in other regions, too, the total rise of the sea could reach five or six feet by 2100, the researchers found. That is roughly twice the increase reported as a plausible worst-case scenario by a United Nations panel just three years ago, and so high it would likely provoke a profound crisis within the lifetimes of children being born today.