Friday, May 4, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During April, The northern islands received up to 150 mm of total rainfall; central and southern islands up to 450 mm. The cumulative rainfall for the last 365 days shows a significant deficit for the northern islands and an excess for the Southern Islands.
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is Normal.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of daily rain is expected in southern and up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands during May 3rd-4th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the central and southern islands during April 30th- May 5th. May is a month with a history of turbulent weather in the Maldives with the risks being enhanced by the MJO signal being in phase 2. 



Central and southern islands up to 450 mm of total rainfall in April. 
 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, April 9, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During March, Addu atoll received rainfall up to 60 mm above the monthly average; and rest of the country up to 90 mm below the average. The northern islands received up to 50 mm of total rainfall; central up to 90 mm; and southern islands up to 180 mm.  
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average. 

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of daily rain is expected in central and up to 10 mm in the northern and southern islands during April 10th-13th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the central islands during April 8th-13th. 




Addu atoll received rainfall up to 60 mm above the monthly average during March
 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During January, Central islands received average rainfall, Northern islands received slightly less than average and southern island of 50 mm above the monthly average. The Northern islands received up to 60 mm of total rainfall; central islands up to 300 mm; and southern islands up to 180 mm during this period. The cumulative rainfall for the last 365 days shows a significant deficit for the Northern islands and an excess for the Southern Islands
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 1 0C above average. This is extremely warm.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rain on March 7th and 8th in the central and southern islands. Up to 70 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands on 11th and 12th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for central and southern islands during 5-10 March.



Central islands received up to 300 mm of total rainfall in February

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, February 23, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During January, Northern and Central islands received average rainfall compared to the monthly average since 2003; and southern island of 140 mm below the monthly average. The central islands received up to 200 mm of total rainfall; and northern and southern islands up to 90 mm. 
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C below average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of rain on February 25th in the northern islands. Up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country country on 26th and 27th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.   



Central islands received up to 200 mm of total rainfall in January

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During December, the Northern and Central islands received below average rainfall and Southern islands received above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 has been increased to 20% in the Northern and to 7% in the Central Islands. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 150 mm; and the central islands by 100 mm in December. Also, Southern islands have a surplus of 200 mm.
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands on the 12th and up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands during 7-9. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.   



Southern islands received up to 400 mm of total rainfall in December

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During November, the Northern islands received below average rainfall and Central and Southern islands received above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 has been increased to 10% in the Northern and decreased to 6% in the Central Islands. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 160 mm; and the Southern islands by 100 mm.  
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 130 mm of rainfall in the central islands on the 6th and up to 70 mm in the southern islands during 7-9. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 100 mm in southern islands next week.       



Central and Southern islands received above average rainfall in November

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2017


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During October, the whole country received below average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 has been increased to 9% in the Northern and to 10% in the Southern and Central Islands. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 200 mm; and the Southern islands by 180 mm.  
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm in southern islands this next week.     



Entire country received below average rainfall in October

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI