Monday, May 25, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

In April 2015 less than average monthly rainfall was observed throughout the Maldives. Usually the rainfall is high in April and the relatively high rainfall in the first two weeks in northern and southern islands was not sufficient to put this above the long-term average. The first week of May saw more than 100 mm rainfall in northern and southern islands and low rainfall in the central islands. The cumulative deficit of rainfall for the past year shows about 25% below normal for the northern islands and close to normal for the southern and central islands. The NOAA CFS models predict up to 50 mm in the next few from 20-25th May. A clean El Nino has onset in the Maldives and this coupled with the warmer Indian Ocean shall lead to warmer months in the next six months. The Central and Northern Islands are likely to have a dry tendency for the next four months followed by a wet tendency from October to December.


Below average rainfall observed in the entire country in March 2015

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

2015 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Outlook for the Maldives


2015 Southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall outlook for the Maldives was issued on 26th April at the First National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) hosted by Maldives Meteorological Service with the support from World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Regional Integrated-Multi Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES). The forum was inaugurated by Mr. Thoriq Ibrahim, Minister for Environment and Energy. Different stakeholders attended NCOF.
Map above shows most likely categories of rainfall over South Asia. For the northern and central Maldives Below normal rainfall is expected during June to September 2015. On the other hand, above normal rainfall is expected for the southern parts of the Maldives during the same period. For more information and further updates on the southwest monsoon over the Maldives, Maldives Meteorological Service can be consulted.

Source: Maldives Meteorological Services. www.meteorology.gov.mv

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Over MVR6m needed to provide water to 97 islands

By Minivan News

The disaster management centre estimates that about MVR6.5 million (US$421,530) will be spent this year to provide clean water to 97 islands due to persisting shortages.

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

After a relatively dry January, February and March some rainfall was observed in the first two weeks of April. This is the highest observed rainfall this year in the entire country. This rainfall coincided with the atmospheric phenomenon known as Madden Julian Oscillation being strong and in phase 3 (and over the Indian Ocean) which is usually associated with higher rainfall over Maldives. But as the MJO transited to phase 5 over the Pacific in the previous week (11 th onwards) was once again dry. The NOAA CFS long range weather prediction models predict dry conditions in the next week as well. Usually in April relatively high rainfall can be observed (about 200 mm- 400 mm monthly). Moderate El Nino conditions have set in and as is typical there is warmer than usual seas around the Maldives. The rainfall in a typical El Nino episode over Maldives is lower than usual in Northern and Central Maldives until mid-September.


Below average rainfall observed in the entire country in March 2015

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, March 23, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

Below average rainfall was observed in January 2015 in Maldives and a continuation of this dry condition was observed in February and early March 2015 as well. Significant amount of rainfall is not predicted in the next few days by NOAA/ CFS models. The rainfall deficit in Maldives has increased to about 22- 33% of what is typical during the past 365 days. IRI predicts an El Nino by mid-2015.


Southern islands continue to receive below average rainfall

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, February 23, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

A continuation of dry weather conditions from the previous month was observed throughout January in the Northern and Central Maldives. The Southern Islands got a significant amount of rainfall on the 12 -14 th of January. The seas to the Southern islands showed a warming which was 0.5C above what is usual. Significant amounts of rainfall are not expected during the next few days as well. On a seasonal time scale, the next three months are expected to bring the usual distribution of rainfall totals although the Southern islands in particular and Central Islands as well shall tend towards warmer temperatures than usual.


Very dry conditions were observed in and around Maldives during January 2015

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, February 6, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – January 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

During December below average rainfall was observed throughout Maldives contributing to a further increase in the rainfall deficit which had persisted throughout the previous year. Despite having relatively higher rainfall towards the end of the year 2014, the rainfall deficit in southern islands too has reached to a magnitude of about 15% of expected rainfall during the year. Most of ENSO prediction models indicate a weak El Nino condition during January to March.

Rainfall Anomaly over Maldives in December 2014. Notice that below average rainfall was observed in the entire country which is shown in brown.


 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI