Saturday, November 10, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2018


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During October, central parts of the country received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 240 mm; and most parts of southern islands and northern islands by up to 120 mm. The Northern Islands have been having a rainfall deficit in the last year compared to normal rainfall.  Also, the Central Islands have a slight excess of rainfall compared to the average while the Southern Islands are having a good year. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is above 1 0C normal. This is extremely warm. 
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on November 11th, 12th and 13th. On the 14th, up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in central islands and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands. Long Range Weather prediction simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for central islands during November 9th -14th. 
Central islands received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 240 mm.






 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – September 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Extremely High Rainfall is forecasts for the North and Central Islands for the 1-6th October.
Monitored: 
During September, Southern Islands received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 240 mm; and Northern and Central islands received below normal rainfall. The cumulative rainfall for the last 365 days shows a 500 mm deficit for the Northern islands; 50 mm deficit for the Central islands; and an excess of 400 mm for the Southern Islands when compared to the past average.   The sea surface temperature around southern Maldives is below  0.5 0C normal.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 70 mm of rainfall in northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands during October 3rd - 6th. On the 7th, up to 70 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands; up to 40 mm in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. Long Range Weather prediction simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 300 mm for the northern and central during October 1st -6th. 
Southern islands received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 240 mm.






 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, September 3, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – August 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During August, Central and Southern Islands received rainfall below than is normal for the season by up to 120 mm; and northern islands by up to 90 mm. The Northern Islands have been having a rainfall deficit in the last year compared to normal rainfall.  Also, the Central Islands have a slight lack of rainfall compared to the average while the Southern Islands are having a good year. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is above 0.5 0C normal.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts 10 mm of rainfall in the entire country on September 3rd and 4th. On the 5th and 6th, up to 10 mm rainfall is expected in the northern and central islands. On the 7th up to 10 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands. Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands on the 8th. Long Range Weather prediction simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country during September 1st -6th. 
Central and Southern islands received rainfall below than is normal for the season by up to 120 mm






 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During July, Southern, some Central and Northern Islands received an excess of rainfall than is normal for the season by up to 90 mm. However, the Northern Islands which had been having a rainfall deficit in the last year is not fully recovered from the below normal rainfall.  The Central Islands have a slight excess of rainfall compared to the average while the Southern Islands are having a good year. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is near normal.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country on August 7th and 8th. On the 9th, up to 10 mm rainfall is expected in the northern islands. Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands on the 10th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country during August 5th -10th. 
Central islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall in July.






 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During June, Southern, Central and some Northern Islands received an excess of rainfall than is normal for the season by up to 120 mm. However, the Northern Islands which had been having a rainfall deficit in the last year is not fully recovered from the below normal rainfall.  The Central Islands have a 100 mm of deficit of rainfall while the Southern Islands are having a good year.   The sea surface temperature around Maldives is near normal with seas around Southern Islands seeing an anomaly of 0.5 0C above average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of daily rain is expected in northern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands on July 11th. Up to 40 mm of daily rainfall is expected in the southern islands on the 15th and 16th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the northern islands during July 9th -14th. 
Central islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall in June. 




 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, June 8, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During May, some Northern and Central Islands received an excess of rainfall than is normal for the season by upto0 180 mm. However the Northern Islands which had been having a rainfall deficit in the last year is not fully recovered from the below normal rainfall.  The Central Islands have made up for the deficit while the Southern Islands are having a good year.
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is average.   

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands on the 11th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the central islands during June 4th-9th. 



Northern islands received up to 600 mm of total rainfall in May
 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, May 4, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During April, The northern islands received up to 150 mm of total rainfall; central and southern islands up to 450 mm. The cumulative rainfall for the last 365 days shows a significant deficit for the northern islands and an excess for the Southern Islands.
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is Normal.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of daily rain is expected in southern and up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands during May 3rd-4th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the central and southern islands during April 30th- May 5th. May is a month with a history of turbulent weather in the Maldives with the risks being enhanced by the MJO signal being in phase 2. 



Central and southern islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall in April. 
 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI