Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – December 2023

                    

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In November, some of the northern and central islands received up to 20 mm of rainfall, while remaining islands received less. South-easterly winds prevailed during the month of November over the southern islands of MV. 

Predictions: Seasonal climate predictions predict a wet tendency for the entire Maldives from January to March 2024.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In January, northern islands receive up to 50 mm of rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm of rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. Usually in February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly. In March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
17th December	TR	TR	TR
18th December	TR	TR	10 mm
19th December	5 mm	TR	5 mm
20th December	10 mm	30 mm	5 mm
21st December	40 mm	40 mm	10 mm
22nd December	10 mm	80 mm	50 mm
23rd December	TR	10 mm	5 mm
24th December	-	10 mm	10 mm
25th December	TR	10 mm	30 mm
26th December	TR	10 mm	50 mm
27th December	-	40 mm	100 mm
28th December	10 mm	100 mm	10 mm
29th December	30 mm	50 mm	50 mm
30th December	50 mm	100 mm	30 mm
31st December	125 mm	125 mm	50 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In November, some of the northern and central islands received up to 20 mm of rainfall, while southern islands received up to 10 mm.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.50C	32.20C	32.00C
T Min	27.70C	23.80C	24.20C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10 Dec, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                                  Central Islands: 200 mm rainfall 
                                                                   Southern Islands: 50 mm rainfall 

11-20 Dec, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 50 mm rainfall 

                                                                   Central Islands: 100 mm rainfall 
                                                                   Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State December 29, 2023:

As of mid-Dec 2023, El Niño conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain strong with key oceanic and atmospheric variables consistent with an ongoing El Niño event. A CPC El Niño advisory remains in place for December 2023. Almost all the models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast a continuation of the El Niño event during the rest of the boreal winter and spring of 2024, which rapidly weakens thereafter. ENSO-neutral conditions become the most likely category in Apr-Jun, of 2024, and remain so during the next two seasons of the forecast period. For Jul-Sep 2024, no single category stands out as dominant, with ENSO-neutral and La Niña being equally likely. By Aug-Oct 2024, La Niña becomes the most probable category, with a likelihood of 52%. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 5-11 December, 2023: 

0.5⁰C - 1⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
2nd January	20 mm	20 mm	TR
3rd January	70 mm	40 mm	10 mm
4th January	40 mm	20 mm	10 mm
5th January	20 mm	40 mm	10 mm
6th January	TR	10 mm	-
7th January	TR	40 mm	20 mm
8th January	TR	TR	-

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 40% for some of the northern islands; and below-normal tercile by 40% for the central and southern islands between 6^th - 19^th January.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 50% probable in the central and southern islands; and 45% probable in the northern islands from January-February- March 2024 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of wetter range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 2 and 3 in the next two weeks (1 Jan – 15 Jan 2024). MJO in phases 2 & 3 is usually enhances the rainfall over the Maldives.