Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – March 2024

                       

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In February, central islands received up to 15 mm of rainfall, while remaining islands received less. North-easterly winds prevailed during the month of January over the Maldives. 

Predictions: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024, with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August. Seasonal climate predictions predict a wet condition for the Maldives from April to June 2024.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of average rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands, it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increases up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
11th March	-	-	-
12th March	-	-	-
13th March	-	-	-
14th March	-	-	-
15th March	-	-	-
16th March	-	TR	TR
17th March	TR	TR	TR
18th March	TR	TR	TR
19th March	TR	TR	-
20th March	-	TR	-
21st March	-	10 mm	TR
22nd March	5 mm	10 mm	10 mm
23rd March	10 mm	TR	TR
24th March	TR	TR	TR
25th March	TR	20 mm	TR

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In February, central islands received up to 15 mm of rainfall; southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall and northern islands received below 5mm of rainfall. 

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	33.50C	34.00C	33.00C
T Min	26.10C	24.10C	23.40C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10 Mar, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 

                                                                  Central Islands: 100 mm rainfall 
                                                                  Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

11-20 Mar, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

                                                                   Central Islands: 5 mm rainfall 
                                                                   Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March 19, 2024:

As of mid-March 2024, El Niño conditions persist in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, with important oceanic and atmospheric indicators aligning with an ongoing El Niño event that is gradually diminishing. Almost all the models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast a continuation of the El Niño event during boreal spring, which rapidly weakens thereafter. ENSO-neutral conditions become the most likely category in Apr-Jun, May-Jul, and Jun-Aug of 2024. La Niña becomes the most probable category in Jul-Sep 2024 through Nov-Jan 2025.  (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 5 - 11 March, 2024: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
28th March	-	20 mm	10 mm
29st March	-	TR	TR
30th March	TR	20 mm	TR
31st March	TR	20 mm	TR
1st April	-	TR	20 mm
2nd April	-	TR	40 mm
3rd April	-	TR	20 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 45% for the central islands; by 40% for the northern and southern islands between 30^th March- 12^th April.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 45% probable in the northern and central islands; and 40% tercile probable in the southern islands from April-May-June 2024 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of normal range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1, 2 and 3 in the next two weeks (26 Mar – 9 Apr 2024). MJO in phases 2 & 3 usually enhances the rainfall over the Maldives.