Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – April 2024

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In March, the Maldives has received less than 5 mm of rainfall. North-easterly winds prevailed for the northern and central islands during the month of March. 

Predictions: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024, with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024. Seasonal climate predictions predict a wet condition for the Maldives from May to July 2024.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In May, average rainfall is about 200 mm in the entire country. The wind direction is westerly and the speed is higher than in April. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
13th April	60 mm	60 mm	80 mm
14th April	NA	NA	NA
15th April	NA	NA	NA
16th April	NA	NA	NA
17th April	NA	NA	NA
18th April	NA	NA	NA
19th April	NA	NA	NA
20th April	NA	NA	NA
21st April	NA	NA	NA
22nd April	TR	TR	10 mm
23rd April	TR	10 mm	10 mm
24th April	TR	40 mm	50 mm
25th April	-	5 mm	30 mm
26th April	TR	30 mm	10 mm
27th April	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In March, central and southern islands received up to 5 mm of rainfall; and northern islands received below 5mm of rainfall

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	34.00C	34.00C	33.00C
T Min	25.00C	24.20C	24.00C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10 April, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

                                                                     Central Islands: 80 mm rainfall 
                                                                     Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State April 19, 2024:

As of mid-April 2024, El Niño conditions still persist in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, with important oceanic and atmospheric indicators aligning with an ongoing El Niño event that is gradually diminishing. Most models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast a transition of the El Niño event to ENSO-neutral in Apr-Jun, 2024, which then persists during boreal summer seasons of May-Jul, and Jun-Aug, 2024. La Niña becomes the most probable category in Aug-Oct 2024 through Dec-Feb 2025, while no category is dominant during Jul-Sep 2024. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 2 - 8 April, 2024: 

0.5⁰C – 1.0⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
30th April	10 mm	40 mm	20 mm
1st May	10 mm	40 mm	20 mm
2nd May	TR	20 mm	20 mm
3rd May	TR	TR	TR
4th May	TR	TR	TR
5th May	TR	TR	TR
6th May	TR	10 mm	70 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 45% for the southern islands: below-normal tercile by 40% for the northern islands and near normal for central islands between 4^th-17^th May.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 60% probable in the central islands; 50% probable in the northern islands; and 45% probable in the southern islands from May-June-July 2024 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of wet range for the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 3 and 4 in the next two weeks (30 April – 13 May 2024). MJO in phase 3 usually enhances the rainfall over the Maldives.