Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – September 2023

             

HIGHLIGHTS

A strong El Niño developed in June 2023 with a strong positive Indian dipole since then. These conditions are highly likely to continue until March 2023.

Monitored: In August, southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, while other islands received less. North westerly winds prevailed during the month. 

Predictions: Seasonal climate predictions predict a wet tendency for the entire islands from October to December 2023.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In October, the northern half of the country usually receives up to 200 mm rain while the southern half receives up to 250 mm rain. Wind is westerly. The entire country usually receives up to 200 mm rain in November with no change in the wind direction from October. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Southern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
9th September	10 mm	-	-
10th September	60 mm	TR	-
11th September	30 mm	30 mm	-
12th September	TR	TR	-
13th September	10 mm	TR	-
14th September	TR	10 mm	TR
15th September	30 mm	TR	-
16th September	60 mm	TR	-
17th September	20 mm	100 mm	TR
18th September	60 mm	130 mm	TR
19th September	20 mm	10 mm	-
20th September	10 mm	5 mm	TR
21st September	40 mm	40 mm	10 mm
22nd September	10 mm	30 mm	5 mm
23rd September	40 mm	40 mm	TR

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In August, southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, while northern and central islands received up to 5 mm. 

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	33.10C	33.00C	32.00C
T Min	30.00C	24.00C	23.00C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10 Sep, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 160 mm rainfall 

                                                                  Central Islands: 160 mm rainfall 
                                                                   Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

11-20 Sep, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                                   Central Islands: 160 mm rainfall 
                                                                   Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State September 20, 2023:

As of mid-Sep 2023, El Niño conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have strengthened further. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with a moderate El Niño event. A CPC El Niño advisory remains in place for September 2023. Almost all of the models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast a continuation of the El Niño event during boreal autumn into winter and early spring of 2024, with a subsequent weakening thereafter, and ENSO-neutral becoming the most likely category in May-Jul 2024 (57% chance). (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 29 Aug - 4 Sep, 2023: 

1⁰C above average SST was observed around northern islands and 0.5⁰C was observed around the central and southern islands.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
25th September	70 mm	10 mm	TR
26th September	10 mm	40 mm	-
27th September	10 mm	40 mm	20 mm
28th September	40 mm	40 mm	TR
29th September	20 mm	40 mm	TR
30th September	20 mm	TR	TR
1st October	40 mm	TR	10 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 70% for the northern and central islands; and near-neutral for the southern islands between 30^thSep - 13^th Oct.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal tercile is 70% probable in the northern and central islands; and 45% probable in the southern islands from October-November-December 2023 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 4,5,6,7 & 8 respectively in the next two weeks (26 Sep – 8 Oct 2023). MJO in phase 4 and 5 is usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.