Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2017

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During October, the whole country received below average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall deficit over the last year compared to the average annual cumulative rainfalls since 2003 has been increased to 9% in the Northern and to 10% in the Southern and Central Islands. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 200 mm; and the Southern islands by 180 mm.  
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 ⁰C above average.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands in the coming week. El Nino prediction models suggest of ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming months. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm in southern islands this next week.     

Entire country received below average rainfall in October

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In November, the whole country usually receives up to 200 mm rain. Wind is westerly. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. In January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Wind is north easterly.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
21st October 2017	Up to 50 mm in a few northern islands.
22nd-24th  October 2017	No Rainfall.
25th  October 2017	Up to 10 mm in a few southern islands.
26th-28th October 2017	No Rainfall.
29th October 2017	Up to 10 mm in a few northern and central islands.
30th October 2017	Up to 20 mm in a few central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
31st October 2017	Up to 50 mm in a few northern islands and up to 30 mm in central islands.
1st November 2017	Up to 100 mm in a few central islands and up to 30 mm in northern islands.
2nd November 2017	Up to 15 mm in northern islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In October, southern islands received up to 180 mm below average rainfall; and northern and central islands up to 150 mm. The whole country received up to 50 mm of total rainfall during this period. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State October 19, 2017:

In mid-October 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state but near the borderline of weak La Niña, as SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña and the atmosphere has also shown patterns suggestive of near-La Niña conditions. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates weak La Niña as a likely scenario during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring September 20, 2017: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was in Phase 4 from 8-11 Oct, and was significant in Phase 5 from 12-19 Oct; in Phase 6 from 20-22 Oct and in Phase 7 from 24-31 Oct.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 20 mm of rain is expected on September 4th and 5th in the central and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands. On the 6th northern islands expected to receive up to 70 mm of rainfall and central and southern islands up to 40 mm. During 7th- 8th up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and northern islands. On the 9thup to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands.